History Suggests CAVA Could be Ready to Rebound

Restaurant stock Cava Group Inc (NYSE:CAVA) was last seen down 1.8% at $73.33, and on track for its fourth-straight daily loss. Shares have struggled to regain momentum since its April peak, logging losses in four of the last five weeks. Despite the recent pullback, CAVA remains up 24.2% in 2026, and a historically bullish signal suggests the stock could be setting up for a rebound by early July.

According to Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White, CAVA is trading within 0.75 times the 126-day moving average's 20-day average true range (ATR), after spending at least 80% of the previous two weeks and 80% of the prior 42 trading sessions above that trendline. This setup has appeared just three times during the last decade. One month later, the stock was higher every time, averaging an impressive 24% gain. A comparable rally from current levels would place CAVA near $91.00.

An unwinding of pessimism could provide further tailwinds. CAVA's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 1.52 sits higher than 99% of readings from the past 12 months, indicating short-term options traders are unusually put-heavy. Short interest is elevated as well. The 13.44 million shares sold short account for 12.24% of CAVA's available float, representing more than four days' worth of pent-up buying power at the stock's average daily trading pace.

Options traders are pricing in relatively low volatility, per CAVA's Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 55%, which ranks in the 18th percentile of its annual range. The stock has tended to exceed these expectations over the past year, per its Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecard (SVS) of 90 out of 100.