Tracking Government Stakes and Stock Performance

Subscribers to our Substack, The Contrarian Edge, received this commentary on Saturday, May 30.

Last year was the year of the TACO trade, when investors realized they could trade the market fluctuations from President Donald Trump’s back-and-forth on tariffs.

Tacos are so last year, though, with 2026 is the year of the steak.

No, not those steaks. Stakes! The U.S. government has spent the last 12 months taking stake in a slew of different publicly-traded companies.

We’re not here to debate the ethics of this, or the Marxist irony. This is not political, this is profitable. We’re here to track the paper trail, the subsequent stock performance, and see if there’s any quantitative utility from these deals.

It all started with US Steel back in June of last year. The domestic rare earth sector made its move shortly after. Then Intel (INTC) last August drew headlines. To start 2026, tech companies started getting in line. Earlier this month, it was quantum computing’s turn. And just this past week, drones got in on the action.

It seems like every high-beta growth stock that’s caught retail traders’ eye has been courted by the U.S. government.

News outlets will break the news, the stocks melt up, and everyone’s happy. But now that time has passed for some of the early reports, where are these stocks now? What does that mean for drones, or quantum computing, or the next sector to get the Trump stake brand?

The Council on Foreign Relations already detailed this timeline. For our sake, we’re focusing on the stock movement.

June 18, 2025: U.S. Steel & the ‘Golden Share’

U.S. Steel was officially sold to Nippon on this day, so we obviously can’t quantify its impact. Sector peers Steel Dynamics (STLD) are some of the best-performing stocks on Wall Street in the last 12 months. But the government doesn’t have actual stake in them, so this is a moot point.

July 10, 2025: MP Materials Corp (NYSE:MP)

MP links up with the Department of Defense to become the company’s largest shareholder. The stock adds 50% that day. MP trades as high as $100.25 on Oct. 14 but now sits at $64.23.

August 22, 2025: Intel Corp (NASDAQ:INTC)

The administration took a 9.9% equity stake in the U.S.-based chipmaker. INTC gains 5.5%, eclipsing $25, which at that time was a BFD. Now, Intel stock trades at $120.89.

September 30, 2025: Lithium Americas Corp (NYSE:LAC)

The U.S. Department of Energy took a 5% stake in LAC, which promptly gapped higher by 23.3%. The stock traded as high as $10.51 in mid-October but now trades at $5.05.

January 13, 2026: L3 Harris Technologies, Inc (NYSE:LHX)

Through the Pentagon, the um, Department of War took a $1 billion equity stake in L3Harris Technologies’ critical rocket motor and missile solutions business. LHX only gained 0.5% the day after the news and is actually lower from there today.

Jan. 24, 2026: USA Rare Earth Inc (NASDAQ:USAR)

The administration takes a 10% equity stake in USA Rare Earth (USAR) to wean off China’s dominance in the market. USAR pops 7.8% on that Monday the 26, and had added 9.1% on the Friday before, when the rumors had started. Sector peer MP actually shed 8.8% on the news.

On Feb. 2, the Trump Administration announced a $12 billion minerals stockpile to counter China, sending the whole sector up. The stock traded as high as $32.07 and now sits at $28.19.

May 21, 2026: Quantum Computing

The Department of Commerce signed letters signaling $2 billion in grants to nine quantum computing companies, including U.S. government equity stakes. IBM (IBM) got $1 billion, while D-Wave (QBTS), Rigetti Computing (RGTI), and Infleqtion (INFQ) got a cool $100 million each.

IBM gained 12.4% that day. QBTS, RGTI, INFQ added 33%, 30.5%, and 31.5%, respectively.

May 27, 2026: Dell Technologies Inc (NYSE:DELL)

On Wednesday night, Dell nabbed a $9.7 billion contract by the Pentagon to provide a suite of software to the U.S. military. The shares added 3.8% Thursday. Then, DELL melted up by 33% on Friday after a stellar earnings triple play. Trump and CEO Michael Dell have been courting each other for some time now.

May 28, 2026: Red Cat Holdings Inc (NYSE:RCAT)

On Thursday, the Wall Street Journal reported the Trump administration was in talks to fund U.S. drone companies. Red Cat stock added 32% but shed 10% on Friday to end the week.

Below is a table tracking the stakes and price actions. I present STAKE, the Stock Tally After Key Equity.

A Few Takeaways

The government stake is not foolproof. LAC, LHX, and RGTI are lower since the announcement, albeit it’s been a shorter time frame for the latter.

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