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Subscribers to our Substack, The Contrarian Edge, received this commentary on Saturday, June 21 .
We’re in that sweet spot of summer right now where it feels like it’s been warm for ages, but there’s still ample amounts left of the season to enjoy. Consider this your reminder to take a breath – especially given the torrent of dramatic headlines in recent months – and reassess your portfolio.
Right before May kicked off, we unveiled a special summer report on stocks to target for the next three months. The report featured an intriguing combination of growth stocks, cyclical names, and contrarian plays. Since the summer solstice is tomorrow, June 21, let’s kick off the unofficial start of the season with a look back at the report.
One month in, we’ll play a little game of ‘Should I Stay or Should I Go?’ as to whether there’s staying power with the picks.
Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL)
We highlighted Apple’s 12-month moving average, a trendline that turned out to be quite the launch pad last month. AAPL has blown past $280 – an area we flagged in late April -- and is making another run at $300. Even if that round-number level proves staunch short-term resistance, the shares are up since May 1.
Verdict: Stay. $300 could be a magnet for a while.
The semiconductor supplier hit a two-year high of $193.78 on June 15. Despite the 32% pop since May 1, four of the seven analysts are on the fence with “hold” or sell ratings. Analysts changing their tune this summer could be supportive of any potential pullbacks.
Verdict: Stay. Up comfortably, even a pullback would keep you in the black.
The fiber optics stock was flat until rattling off a nearly 20% pop in the last two weeks. Keep an eye on the $125, $130, and $150 levels, as identified in the report.
Verdict: Stay. See above. Let your winners run.
CVX just turned in its worst week since April 2025. Oil prices are in a freefall, putting pressure on the entire sector. If the stock can reclaim $180 and its 20-week moving average, there might be a ‘buy the dip’ play here.
Verdict: Go. Oil has been up for so long, and if this is truly a summer of overseas de-escalation, there’s not enough tailwinds out there.
While the 100-day trendline we cited was breached, the 320-day stepped up. The stock just added 10.1% this week and still has massive unwind potential from an options and broader short selling perspective.
Verdict: Go. Banking on that 320-day.
LUNR was flying high to end May, trading up at $46.75. But the entire satellite sector has come back down to earth, literally. The 126-day (half-year) moving average was breached on Friday. The short squeeze is ripe for the taking though, and once SpaceX (SPCX) is done hogging all of the attention, the bounce-back could be swift and sudden.
Verdict: Go. Buy that space dip.
NXE’s 20-week moving average has been breached. Watch that trendline, because the short covering ability is there for the uranium miner, a sector that’s also ripe for government support.
Verdict: Go. A long ways to go before support becomes a thing again.
A 57% post-earnings melt-up on May 6 changes the entire dynamic of this stock. If you took a flier on May 1, congratulations. A bull flag pattern put OSS on its next leg higher, culminating in a June 2 record high of $20.88. Roughly 16% of the stock’s total available float is sold short, with bearish bets more than doubling in the most recent reporting period. Despite the huge profits, this might be still be a green light.
Verdict: Stay. Not sure why there was such a bearish build. Even if there’s consolidation, you’re up big for the summer.
Another name basking in the glow of a post-earnings pop earlier in May. OPTX has made 10 double-digit moves since May 1. It’s finished positive only 16 times alone in that timeframe. This is a volatile one, but $10 remains support. Keep an eye on earnings for another profitability signal.
Verdict: Go. Only because there have been so many Go’s, and it would be wise to take some profits now and then.
Walmart gapped below its 80-day trendline in late May, and now the 200-day is doing the heavy lifting. The unwind of bearish bets has worn off, and the uptrend line has broken.
Verdict: Go. Not retail’s year.
SpaceX Options Activity Tipping Bears Hand
Fuck Elon Musk.
Click Here to view the rest on Schaeffer’s Substack!
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