GSK to Report First-Quarter Earnings: Is a Beat in Store?

We expect GSK plc GSK to surpass expectations when it reports first-quarter 2025 earnings on April 30, before the opening bell. The company’s earnings beat estimates by 11.32% in the last reported quarter.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales and earnings is pegged at $9.54 billion and $1.08 per American depositary share (ADS), respectively. (Find the latest EPS estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.)

Factors Shaping GSK’s Upcoming Results

GSK reports financial figures under three segments — Specialty Medicines, Vaccines and General Medicines.

In the first quarter, higher sales of newer products like Cabenuva, Juluca, Dovato, Nucala, Ojjaara, Jemperli and Trelegy Ellipta are likely to have offset the decline in sales of older HIV drugs and respiratory medicines due to generic erosion and competitive pressure.

In HIV, the strong sales growth trend witnessed in recent quarters of the two-drug regimens, Dovato and J&J JNJ-partnered Juluca, and long-acting regimens, Cabenuva and Apretude, might have more than offset losses in sales of the three-drug regimens in the to-be-reported quarter. Our model estimates sales from the HIV portfolio to be £1.71 billion.

Sales of GSK’s vaccine segment have been declining in the past few quarters, due to lower sales of key vaccines Shingrix (shingles vaccine) and Arexvy (RSV vaccine). While Shingrix sales have been affected due to lower demand in the U.S. and International markets, the fall in Arexvy sales can be attributed to the restrictive recommendation issued by the U.S. CDC last year for individuals in the 60-74 age bracket. We expect this trend to have continued in the to-be-reported quarter.

Our model predicts the overall sales from the vaccine segment to be about £2.2 billion. This includes Shingrix and Arexvy sales of around £908 million and £155 million, respectively. We expect GSK to add £843 million from the sale of its Established vaccines.

Oncology sales are likely to have witnessed growth backed by the rising demand for PD-1 inhibitor Jemperli and PARP inhibitor Zejula sales, coupled with the recently-launched blood cancer drug Ojjaara. Our model expects the Oncology portfolio to report about £380 million in sales.

Other key drivers of top-line growth in GSK’s portfolio include respiratory drugs Trelegy Ellipta and Nucala. Our model expects Trelegy and Nucala to report about £677 million and £403 million, respectively, in sales.

GSK’s Earnings Surprise History

The British drugmaker’s performance has been impressive. Its earnings surpassed estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, delivering an average surprise of 11.44%.

GSK PLC Sponsored ADR Price and EPS Surprise

GSK PLC Sponsored ADR price-eps-surprise | GSK PLC Sponsored ADR Quote

Year to date, GSK’s shares have gained 11% against the industry’s 5% decline.

What Our Model Predicts for GSK

Per our proven model, companies with the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) have a good chance of delivering an earnings beat. This is the case here. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

GSK has an Earnings ESP of +3.16% and a Zacks Rank#3, indicating a likely beat. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

Other Stocks to Consider

Here are some other biotech stocks that have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this time around:

argenx ARGX has an Earnings ESP of +10.92% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present.

argenx stock failed to deliver any returns in the year-to-date period. It beat on earnings in two of the last four quarters and missed in the other two, delivering an average surprise of 345.11%.

CytomX Therapeutics CTMX has an Earnings ESP of +38.89% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present.

CytomX Therapeutics’ shares have plunged 31% year to date. CytomXbeat on earnings in three of the trailing four quarters and missed in the other one, delivering an average surprise of 180.70%.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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