History: This Tech Stock Should Be Safe July 4th Week

Subscribers to Chart of the Week received this commentary on Sunday, June 28.

As we conclude a week of tech-induced turmoil, the stock market is staring down the barrel of several new phases. A fresh quarter, month, and a holiday-shortened week are on deck, commencing amid a volatile streak of Middle East uncertainty and fears surrounding the impact of rising costs for AI infrastructure.

To help you and your portfolio ride out the tech-induced volatility, we’ll look at the upcoming July 4th trading week, which is slated to end on Thursday, with Friday, July 3 marked as an observed holiday for Saturday’s Independence Day.

In terms of S&P 500 Index (SPX) performance, Schaeffer’s Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White pulled data going back 50 years, looking at the benchmark’s performance for each day of the week. Historically, Monday tends to be the best for the SPX when looking at average returns, showing a move of 0.8%, positive 73% of the time. Next week the market will be closed on Friday, however, this weekday also tends to show positive results when looking at median returns.

White also gathered a list of the best performers during the week of the 4th of July that dates back 10 years. This could give you a better idea of where exactly to put your money in terms of tech, with Block (XYZ) making its way to the top spot.

Over the past decade, XYZ has averaged a return of 3.2%, finishing the week positive every single time. Also managing a 100% win rate during the week are Albermarle (ALB), PayPal (PYPL), and Rollins (ROL). From Block stock’s Friday trading price of roughly $76, a jump of this magnitude would put the shares just shy of $80 by Thursday’s close.

A push back near the $80 mark would put Block stock within a chip-shot of its Aug. 8 annual peak of $82.50 and confidently above the $75 line of resistance. The 320-day moving average flipped from pressure to a line of support in mid-April, capturing a brief pullback earlier this month as well. Currently, XYZ carries a healthy 17% gain for 2026.

Plus, the equity sports a 50-day put/call volume ratio at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) that stands higher than 94% of readings from the past year. Should this bearish sentiment begin to unwind, it could trigger tailwinds for the software concern.

Options look like an affordable route, too. XYZ's Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 44% sits in the 12th percentile of its annual range, meaning near-term option traders are pricing in relatively low volatility expectations.