Vertex Gears Up to Report Q1 Earnings: Is a Beat in the Cards?

We expect Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated VRTX to surpass expectations when it reports first-quarter 2025 results on May 5, after market close. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter’s revenues is pegged at $2.82 billion, while the same for earnings is $4.22 per share. (Find the latest EPS estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar)

Year to date, shares of Vertex have rallied 23.3% against the industry’s decline of 5.2%.

Factors Shaping VRTX's Upcoming Results

Vertex’s cystic franchise (“CF”) sales have been growing, driven by higher sales of its blockbuster CF medicine, Trikafta/Kaftrio (Trikafta’s brand name in Europe), in younger age groups.

The company’s revenues in the to-be-reported quarter are likely to have been driven by strong demand for Trikafta/Kaftrio in both the United States and international markets

The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimate for Trikafta/Kaftrio sales are currently pegged at $2.55 billion and $2.62 billion, respectively.

However, higher Trikafta/Kaftrio sales are likely to have caused sales erosion of VRTX’s other CF drugs — Symdeko (marketed as Symkevi in Europe), Orkambi and Kalydeco.

While CF remains the main area of focus, Vertex has witnessed rapid success with its non-CF pipeline candidates in the past year.

Vertex and partner CRISPR Therapeutics’ CRSP one-shot gene therapy, Casgevy, was approved in late 2023/early 2024 for two blood disorders — sickle cell disease and transfusion-dependent beta-thalassemia.

Vertex leads the global development and commercialization of Casgevy under the terms of the 2021 agreement, with support from CRISPR Therapeutics.

VRTX’s product revenues in the last reported quarter included $8 million from Casgevy sales. Sales of Casgevy should be higher in the first quarter of 2025. Investors will be keen to get more updates related to the commercial progress of Casgevy on the upcoming earnings call.

Recent FDA Nod for VRTX's Two Products

The FDA approved Vertex’s oral, non-opioid, highly selective NaV1.8 pain signal inhibitor, Journavx, for the treatment of adults with moderate-to-severe acute pain in January 2025.

Vertex’s fifth CFTR modulator therapy, Alyftrek (vanza triple), is a next-in-class triple combination regimen that was approved by the FDA in December 2024 for treating people with CF aged six years and older. Vertex’s regulatory application for Alyftrek is also under review in the EU and some other countries. Earlier this week, the European Medicines Agency’s (EMA) Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use (CHMP) rendered a positive opinion recommending approval for Alyftrek in the EU.

On the first-quarter conference call, investors will be looking for updates related to the commercial launch of Alyftrek (vanza triple) and Journavx (suzetrigine).

Updates related to Vertex’s other pipeline candidates, which are in mid- to late-stage studies for treating other diseases like APOL1-mediated kidney diseases, alpha-1 antitrypsin deficiency and cell therapy for type I diabetes, are also expected on the upcoming earnings call.

VRTX's Earnings Surprise History

Vertex’s performance has been mixed over the trailing four quarters. The company beat earnings estimates in two of the last four reported quarters while missing the same on the remaining two occasions, delivering an earnings surprise of 2.58%, on average. In the last reported quarter, the company missed earnings estimates by 0.25%.

Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated Price and EPS Surprise

Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated price-eps-surprise | Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated Quote

What Our Model Predicts for VRTX

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Vertex this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. This is the case here, as you will see below. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they're reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Earnings ESP: Vertex has an Earnings ESP of +0.40%.

Zacks Rank: Vertex currently carries a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Other Stocks to Consider

Here are some other biotech stocks that have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this time around:

CytomX Therapeutics CTMX has an Earnings ESP of +38.89% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present.

CytomX Therapeutics’ shares have plunged 31.3% year to date. CTMX beat on earnings in three of the trailing four quarters and missed in the other one, delivering an average surprise of 180.70%.

argenx ARGX has an Earnings ESP of +10.92% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present.

argenx stock has risen 1% in the year-to-date period. ARGX beat on earnings in two of the last four quarters and missed in the other two, delivering an average surprise of 345.11%. ARGX is scheduled to report first-quarter results on May 8.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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