Martin Marietta to Report Q1 Earnings: What's in Store for the Stock?

Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. MLM is scheduled to report first-quarter 2025 results on April 30, before market open.

In the last reported quarter, the company reported mixed results, with earnings beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 4.1% but revenues missing the same by 1.3%. Both the top and bottom lines increased 1% and 3% on a year-over-year basis, respectively.

Martin Marietta’s earnings topped the consensus mark in two of the last four quarters and missed on two occasions, with an average negative surprise of 1.7%.

Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. Quote

Trend in MLM’s Estimate Revision

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MLM’s first-quarter earnings is pegged at $1.92 per share, which increased from $1.84 in the past seven days. This implies a decline of 0.5% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure of $1.93 per share.

The consensus estimate for net sales is pegged at $1.35 billion, indicating an 8.2% increase from the prior-year quarter’s figure of $1.25 billion. (Find the latest EPS estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.)

Factors Likely to Shape Martin Marietta’s Quarterly Results

Martin Marietta’s first-quarter revenues are expected to have improved year over year on the back of strong pricing gains in aggregates, strength in public construction and accretive acquisitions. Infrastructure demand is the primary volume driver, with continued strength from public infrastructure projects and AI/data center-related nonresidential projects. Residential demand is expected to remain sluggish due to higher mortgage rates. Pricing improvements and benefits from growth initiatives are likely to have aided sales and profits in the aggregates business. However, this positive aspect is likely to have been counterbalanced by the challenges associated with aggregates volumes organically due to adverse weather conditions.  

MLM’s business has been sensitive to changes in construction spending, particularly housing and public construction. Strong state and federal investments in infrastructure, supported by the IIJA, are likely to have aided the company’s performance. Funding stability at both levels might have also contributed to its performance in the quarter by supporting volume stability and a favorable pricing environment in this aggregate-intensive market.

Our model indicates aggregates pricing to increase to $23.11 per ton, marking 3.8% year-over-year growth. We expect aggregates revenues to increase to $976.3 million from $885 million a year ago.

We expect the Building Material segment revenues, which comprised 95.3% of total revenues in the fourth quarter of 2024, to increase 8.5% year over year to $1.27 billion. Our expectation for gross profit for the Building Material unit is pegged at $293.5 million, up 18.4% from a year ago.

Our model predicts Magnesia Specialties revenues to increase 1.7% year over year to $82.4 million. We expect gross profit for the Magnesia Specialties unit to be $25.5 million, down 12.1% from a year ago.

We expect cement revenues to decline year over year to $107.2 million from $110 million. Our expectation for cement volume is pegged at 0.6 million tons. However, cement pricing is anticipated to rise 1.4% to $188.09 per ton.

Meanwhile, the bottom line of Martin Marietta is expected to have decreased year over year due to elevated operating costs. Higher cost inflation, a rise in transportation and insurance costs, as well as labor costs, are likely to have put pressure on the bottom line in the first quarter.

What the Zacks Model Unveils for MLM

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Martin Marietta this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is exactly the case here.

Earnings ESP of MLM: Martin Marietta has an Earnings ESP of +1.66%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

MLM Zacks Rank: The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.

Other Stocks With the Favorable Combination

Here are some companies in the Zacks Construction sector that, according to our model, have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat in the quarter to be reported.

Dream Finders Homes DFH has an Earnings ESP of +19.01% and a Zacks Rank of 2. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Dream Finders reported better-than-expected earnings in two of the last four quarters and missed on other two occasions, the average negative surprise being 4.4%. Dream Finders’ earnings for the first quarter of 2025 are expected to increase 10.9%.

MasTec, Inc. MTZ has an Earnings ESP of +0.85% and a Zacks Rank of 3.

MasTec’s earnings beat estimates in each of the last four quarters, the average surprise being 31.6%. MasTec’s earnings for the quarter to be reported are expected to increase 361.5%.

Primoris Services PRIM currently has an Earnings ESP of +13.02% and a Zacks Rank of 3.

Primoris Services’ earnings beat estimates in all the last four quarters, the average surprise being 157.7%. Primoris Services’ earnings for the quarter to be reported are expected to jump 53.2%.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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