Fed rate hike bets retreat as markets await retail earnings and fresh economic signals: Dow Jones, S&P, Nasdaq, Wall Street Futures

U.S. stock futures were mixed on Monday as investors further reduced expectations for an interest rate increase from the Federal Reserve in September following a run of softer economic data. Attention is also turning towards a busy week of retail earnings, including results from Walmart (NYSE:WMT), Home Depot (NYSE:HD) and Lowe’s (NYSE:LOW).

Elsewhere, Anthropic’s (NASDAQ:ANTP) potential stock market debut is attracting attention as bankers and investors assess revenue projections that could reach $200 billion by 2028. Shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz also fell sharply over the weekend amid continuing tensions between the U.S. and Iran.

U.S. futures mixed as Fed expectations shift

By 03:08 ET (07:08 GMT), Dow futures were down 26 points, or 0.1%, while S&P 500 futures gained 15 points, or 0.2%. Nasdaq 100 futures advanced 160 points, equivalent to 0.5%.

Wall Street’s major indices had declined in the previous session, partly following weaker-than-expected U.S. retail sales figures.

Applied Materials (NASDAQ:AMAT) also pressured technology stocks after its positive outlook failed to satisfy elevated market expectations. The semiconductor equipment company’s shares dropped more than 5%, weighing on other companies linked to the artificial intelligence investment boom.

Deutsche Bank analysts said in a note to clients that signs of a summer slowdown in market activity were beginning to emerge, highlighting the VIX volatility index falling to its lowest level of 2026 on Friday.

Despite equity indices remaining close to record highs, the analysts pointed to “challenging August crosswinds playing out in bond markets.”

“Expectations for an imminent Fed rate hike have been pulled back, but this has been accompanied by a significant U.S. curve steepening, with the backdrop of higher oil prices, elevated fiscal deficits, and demand for capital from the AI investment boom putting upward pressure on yields,” the analysts wrote.

The minutes from the Federal Reserve’s July meeting and preliminary August business activity indicators could provide another important test for bond markets this week.

Retail earnings will also take centre stage. Home Depot is due to report alongside Target, Lowe’s and Walmart, giving investors further insight into the strength of U.S. consumer spending.

Anthropic valuation could depend on $200 billion 2028 revenue target

Anthropic (NASDAQ:ANTP) is forecasting annual revenue of approximately $190 billion to $200 billion by 2028 as bankers and investors evaluate the artificial intelligence developer ahead of a possible major initial public offering, Reuters reported.

The projection is more than four times the $47 billion revenue run rate disclosed by Anthropic in May, illustrating the scale of future growth being incorporated into potential valuations.

Reuters, citing people familiar with Anthropic’s finances, reported that bankers and investors are applying enterprise value-to-revenue multiples to forecasts extending two years into the future.

Revenue multiples are commonly used to value rapidly expanding software companies that have yet to establish mature profitability. Using projections two years ahead is less conventional and reflects both Anthropic’s rapid growth and the difficulties involved in valuing an AI business investing heavily in computing infrastructure, model development and employees.

Hormuz shipping traffic drops sharply

Commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz slowed significantly over the weekend as vessels faced the threat of attacks and negotiations aimed at resolving the U.S.-Iran conflict remained stalled.

Shipping data from Kpler cited by Reuters showed that five commodity vessels crossed the strait on Saturday, while none made the journey on Sunday. That compares with 31 vessels during the previous weekend.

Traffic appeared to slow after attacks last week on three vessels operated by the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, according to the United Arab Emirates.

The U.S. has also indicated that its naval blockade of Iranian ports could remain in place indefinitely, further reducing expectations for an immediate diplomatic breakthrough with Tehran.

Before the U.S. and Israel launched their assault on Iran in late February, more than 130 vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz each day. The waterway remains one of the world’s most important transit routes for oil and liquefied natural gas.

Brent crude futures were last trading 0.1% lower at $88.45 a barrel.

China’s industrial output growth loses momentum

Chinese industrial production expanded at a slower pace in July as weak domestic demand and rising costs offset continued strength in overseas demand.

Industrial production increased 4.5% year-on-year, according to figures released by the National Bureau of Statistics on Monday. The result fell short of expectations for 5% growth and slowed from the 5.3% increase recorded in June.

China’s manufacturing sector is facing a more difficult domestic demand environment. The official manufacturing PMI moved into contraction territory during July, while household consumption remained subdued.

Strong international demand nevertheless continued to support exports, particularly in higher-technology industries, cushioning some of the weakness in industrial activity.

Manufacturers also faced additional cost pressure from disruption across global energy and shipping markets.

Nvidia reportedly discusses $3 billion SB Energy investment

Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) is discussing a potential investment of as much as $3 billion in SB Energy, the SoftBank Group-backed developer involved in a planned Ohio data centre campus for OpenAI, The Information reported on Saturday, citing people familiar with the talks.

The possible investment forms part of separate discussions involving Nvidia, OpenAI and SB Energy over approximately $100 billion of credit support from the chipmaker for the proposed Ohio development, according to the report.

The negotiations illustrate Nvidia’s expanding involvement in financing and supporting the infrastructure required for the rapid expansion of artificial intelligence, alongside its established role as a leading supplier of advanced AI chips.

Discussions remain ongoing and the eventual terms of any investment could change. Nvidia is scheduled to publish its latest quarterly results next week.

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