Jackson Hole Welcomes Warsh, Next Week Is "Jobs Week"

Friday, August 28th, 2026

It’s been an eventful week for the stock market, with PCE inflation data and AI-staple NVIDIA NVDA mid-week. This morning, the news comes from Jackson Hole, Wyoming, where the Kansas City Fed hosts the annual economic symposium. This year’s theme is “Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy.”

Perhaps it seems strange for the focus to be on things like cryptocurrency when there are so many other things more directly affecting the U.S. economy — oil prices and the Iran war, along with tariffs and higher-than-optimal inflation rates. But this allows for Fed Chair Kevin Warsh to give his first keynote address at this symposium and speak at length about the topic at hand. As we’ve seen from his two press conferences following monetary policy meeting with the FOMC, these other areas of interest are things he keeps pretty close to the vest.
 

What to Expect from the Stock Market Today

After today’s opening bell, we look for a couple key regional surveys. These include the Chicago Business Barometer for August, with a snapshot Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), and the University of Michigan final consumer survey, also for August. These are expected to move in opposite directions: 58 on Chicago Business, up from 57.6 reported a month ago, and a 51 on the U. Mich survey — below the 55.2 reported last time.

Neither of these is expected to move the trading needle today, as we are in the final weeks of summer when the stock market gets a bit more quiet. Also, the big news of the week — higher-than-expected inflation from July PCE at +3.7% year over year, and another stupendously successful quarterly release form NVIDIA — has already occurred. Whatever moves we might have expected in reaction to real-time events (and results were ultimately quite complimentary, mostly thanks to NVIDIA) have already manifested themselves.
 

What to Expect from the Stock Market Next Week

We’re still another week away from the Labor Day holiday, which comes a week from Monday, but next week brings us the latest Jobs Week. Tuesday has JOLTS data from July, and Wednesday brings us private-sector payroll results from ADP ADP for August. Thursday is our normal Weekly Jobless Claims and Friday is the Big Kahuna: non-farm payrolls from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

Of these, the jobless claims are likely to imply the strongest results for the current labor market, as they have been hovering near 60-year lows for much of the summer. The monthly reports average out to around break-even: +44K on ADP for July and -23K on BLS. The labor market in these monthly reports have dwindled over the past year, and aren’t expected to get much wind in their sails from the current month.

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