Oil, Yields Higher Ahead of "Jobs Week"

Monday, August 31st, 2026

Pre-market futures are down to start a news trading week. This followed a week of somewhat higher trading on strong NVIDIA NVDA earnings results, though off mid-August highs. The Dow is -235 points lower at this hour, the S&P 500 is -37, with the Nasdaq down 107 points and the small-cap Russell 2000 basically flat at -1.8.

Spot oil prices are up more than +3% on both WTI ($86 per barrel [/bbl]) and Brent crude ($91/bbl). We had almost gotten through an entire month without violence in Iran, but overnight the U.S. struck Iran’s military arsenal on Larak Island and the IRGC returned fire on U.S. bases in Jordan. It would appear the “economic d-day” strategy the White House declared a week ago is either being shifted away from or augmented with new shows of force.

As a result, we see bond yields now at their highest levels of either Trump term: +4.75% on the 10-year, +4.32% on the 2-year and +5.25% on the 30-year. This complicates matters for the Fed somewhat; Fed Chair Kevin Warsh now contends with economic conditions that speak to lowering the Fed funds rate even less likely than when he took office in May.
 

“Jobs Week” This Week: JOLTS, ADP, Claims & BLS

As this week ushers in the month of September starting tomorrow, so do reports on the labor market. Starting Tuesday with the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for July and concluding with Friday morning’s non-farm payrolls from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

JOLTS data is expected to hold steady at 7.4 million job openings for July, down from the two-year highs we’d seen a couple months back. Wednesday’s private-sector employment report from Automatic Data Processing ADP expects +45K new jobs created in August, essentially flat month over month and well below the triple-digit gains we last saw in May. Thursday’s Weekly Jobless Claims are expected to again be favorable: 205K on Initial Claims for the week and right around 1.8 million on Continuing Claims.

Friday’s Employment Situation report from BLS looks to bounce back from a woeful tally in July: -23K in the last report to +50K expected this week. The Unemployment Rate is expected to stay historically low at 4.1%, but this may be the result of a lack of participation in the labor force. Hourly Earnings have been muted and look to remain there: +0.2% month over month and +3.0% year over year.

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