Morgan Stanley estimates that Apple’s (NASDAQ:AAPL) first foldable iPhone could contribute about $14 billion in revenue during the December quarter, with the bank describing the planned launch as the company’s most consequential since the iPhone X.
“Apple’s first foldable iPhone is the biggest iPhone form-factor change since iPhone X,” analyst Erik Woodring wrote ahead of Apple’s Sept. 9 event.
Morgan Stanley expects initial demand to be high relative to available supply. The bank forecasts between 7 million and 8 million units will be built during the second half of 2026, rising to as many as 20 million over the product’s first cycle.
The bank also views the launch as a test of Apple’s pricing power and expects the company to introduce its largest like-for-like iPhone price increases in years.
Woodring said higher NAND and DRAM costs are expected to result in year-over-year price increases of more than $200 for Pro models. He identified the expected transition to TSMC’s 2nm process as the main upgrade for the iPhone 18 Pro, with the change expected to support higher on-device artificial intelligence performance.
According to Morgan Stanley, Apple appears “more focused on securing enough components than finding enough buyers,” although constraints in memory supply could limit production volumes in the near term.
“The event will prove to be anything but ordinary,” wrote Woodring. “This is because for the first time in 15 years, Tim Cook will not headline the event; instead, new CEO John Ternus will lead the company into its first major iPhone form factor change in nearly 10 years, unveiling the much-anticipated iPhone Fold (Ultra?), alongside what are likely to be the broadest, and most significant, like-for-like iPhone price hikes in company history.”
Morgan Stanley does not expect the base iPhone 18 or iPhone Air 2 to be introduced until the spring.
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