Etsy (NASDAQ:ETSY) shares rose 2.9% in premarket trading on Tuesday after Oppenheimer analyst Jason Helfstein upgraded the online marketplace to Outperform from Perform and set a $90 price target.
Helfstein cited potential benefits from artificial intelligence search, product improvements and changes in app engagement and conversion.
The analyst said an analysis of SimilarWeb website traffic indicated that Etsy’s third-quarter non-app buyers were approximately unchanged from a year earlier, compared with a 3% year-over-year decline in the second quarter. Based on those trends, Oppenheimer said the upper end of Etsy’s gross merchandise sales guidance could be achievable.
Oppenheimer Raises Etsy GMS Estimate
Oppenheimer expects second-half non-app gross merchandise sales growth to be in line with the second quarter.
The firm’s forecasts assume no improvement in app GMS on a two-year comparison despite what the analyst characterised as product improvements.
Oppenheimer also cited findings from its survey of 2,500 US consumers as supporting its assessment of Etsy’s product changes and competitive position. The firm said the survey indicated that Etsy may be becoming less dependent on Google Search.
These conclusions represent Oppenheimer’s analysis and forecasts rather than reported financial results from Etsy.
Broker Forecasts 5% GMS Growth in 2027 and 2028
Oppenheimer increased its fiscal 2026 GMS estimate for Etsy by 1%, placing the forecast at the upper end of Wall Street estimates, according to the supplied information.
The broker now forecasts GMS growth of 5% in both fiscal 2027 and 2028, despite assuming Etsy will lose some share within the online handmade goods market.
Oppenheimer’s $90 price target is based on a multiple of 12 times estimated 2027 EBITDA. The firm said this represents a 10% valuation discount to eBay despite its expectation of similar growth rates.
The price target and growth estimates are analyst forecasts and do not indicate Etsy’s future financial or share-price performance.
Etsy stock price
