The Great U.S. Existing Home Mortgage Lock-in

Here’s a uniquescenario: A large chunk of the existing U.S. housing supply is locked into super low fixed COVID-era mortgage rate finance terms. The average 30-year fixed U.S. mortgage rate sat at 3.11% in 2020 and 2.96% in 2021.

According to Redfin analysis undertaken on Sept. 25th, 2025 (a year ago): 48-52% of existing U.S. mortgages carried a rate lower than 4.0%, while 20% of active U.S. mortgages remained locked in below 3.0%.

Here to help us understand what’s going on is our Chief Equity Strategist and Economist, John Blank.

1. You’ve written, The U.S. residential property market enters late 2026 defined by unprecedented valuation resilience -- matched against multi-year transactional paralysis. What does this actually mean?

2. Why has existing home inventory remained tight? Is it just because home-sellers locked into low fixed rate mortgages remain hesitant to surrender those mortgages?

3. How is this impacting prices? Are the new home builders filling a gap that exists?

4. If housing inventory dynamics are undergoing a structural shift and various U.S. regions are wildly different, in terms of their current housing narratives, how can this get resolved?

5. What other conclusions can be drawn from this situation? Do you see last week’s interest rate hike putting more pressure on the housing market?

6. Along with everything else going on, how does this alter your prognosis for our economy going forward?

7. In light of the current oil situation, here are three oil and gas large cap stocks you’re watching include Valero Energy VLO, Phillips 66 PSX and Eni SpA E.

Our Chief Equity Strategist and Economist, John Blank, on a unique housing scenario. With John, I’m Terry Ruffolo.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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