Dow Lags as Wall Street Turns the Page on Mixed Q3

This week marked the end of September and the third quarter. The Nasdaq was the only major index to eke out a monthly win, while the Dow snapped a five-month winning streak. On a quarterly basis, the Nasdaq and S&P 500 finished in the black, while the Dow suffered a steep third-quarter loss.

Wall Street kicked off the fourth quarter on shaky footing, as surging Treasury yields and elevated oil prices pressured stocks throughout much of the week. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to its highest level since 2002, while the 30-year yield touched a 24-year high, with weakness in AI stocks adding to the pressure. Cooler-than-expected inflation data offered some relief Wednesday, though stocks struggled to gain meaningful ground. Sentiment improved by Friday after weaker-than-expected jobs data sent Treasury yields lower, helping tech stocks rally and the Nasdaq notch a fresh record high. At midday, the Dow and S&P 500 were headed for weekly losses, while the Nasdaq was on track for its third-straight weekly win.

Stocks Making Moves

A mix of corporate developments and earnings sparked sharp moves across individual stocks. Navitas Semiconductor (NVTS) surged after securing a U.S. Army contract, while Robinhood Markets (HOOD) popped after unveiling an AI-powered trading agent and 24/7 stock trading. MongoDB (MDB) moved in the opposite direction following a C-suite shakeup, though options bulls were quick to target the subsequent selloff. Micron Technology (MU) slid Thursday despite a blowout fiscal fourth-quarter report, while ON Semiconductor (ON) rallied Friday on an amended merger agreement. Nike (NKE) also struggled, extending its 2026 losses after a disappointing revenue report.

Bullish and Bearish Signals Flash

Several stocks also landed on our radar after flashing notable technical signals. Duolingo (DUOL) sports a historically bullish setup, while RTX (RTX) and Barclays (BCS) pulled back to a trendlines that have preceded gains in the past. On the other side of the ledger, Energy Fuels (UUUU) is a stock traders might want to avoid in October. 

Looking Ahead

Looking ahead, the first full trading week of October will bring minutes from September's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, U.S. services purchasing managers' index (PMI) data, and another round of earnings, including reports from Delta Air Lines (DAL), PepsiCo (PEP), and Applied Digital (APLD).

Per Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White, investors also have some encouraging seasonality to consider, as the S&P 500 enters what has historically been a bullish stretch. Meanwhile, despite mounting risks and persistent pessimism, Schaeffer's Senior V.P. of Research Todd Salamone pointed out that technical support for the index remains intact.