CPI Jumps Back to Spring Levels, Pre-Markets Fall

Wednesday, October 14th, 2026

Pre-market futures have sunk into the red this morning, immediately following the September print on the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is showing a re-acceleration of inflation after a summer of agreeably dormant, flat levels. Bond yields are also notably higher on the news.

Ahead of the CPI report, the Dow was +227 points, the Nasdaq was +12 and the S&P 500 +25 points. Currently, the Dow is -76, the Nasdaq -217 and the S&P 500 -17 points. The 10-year yield moved from +5.187% ahead of the print to +5.304% now, the 2-year went from +4.774% to +4.924% and the 30-year from +5.540% to +5.609%.
 

CPI Inflation at Highest Rates Since Last Spring

Why the hubbub? We’d just seen the consensus estimate on year-over-year CPI headline (aka “the Inflation Rate”) tick down 10 basis points (bps) from the start of the week, but it came in as earlier expected: +3.7%. The month-over-month tally was in-line with expectations at +0.6%, but this is up notably for the past three months and now stands at the highest level since April of this year. The +3.7% Inflation Rate is highest since May.

We had seen a real flattening on the Inflation Rate over the previous three months, but now we’ve back up in the 2022 range, when inflation had spun out of control based on post-Covid supply chain issues and a slow-moving Fed to raise interest rates. 

Stripping out volatile food and energy costs bring us the core CPI numbers, and here we’re a little warmer than expected: +0.3% on core month over month and +2.6% year over year, both 10 bps higher than analysts were looking for. These numbers may look pretty benign as a static image, but they are going higher; back in June, we were at 0.0% core CPI month over month. 

Tomorrow we’ll hear the other shoe drop when the Producer Price Index (PPI) — the wholesale inflation print relative to CPI’s retail inflation — for September hits the tape. Last month, this came in 200 bps hotter on year-over-year headline than CPI did: +5.4% versus +3.4%. This figure is estimated to tick up to +5.5% in tomorrow’s report, which is clearly well above the Fed’s preferred inflation rate of +2.0%.
 

Q3 Earnings at a Glance: MS, BAC, PGR & More

Investment bank giant Morgan Stanley MS outperformed expectations in its Q3 report this morning, with earnings of $3.03 per share surpassing the $2.83 Zacks consensus. Revenues of $20.34 billion beat the $19.74 billion estimate. This continues Morgan Stanley’s strong earnings performance, which has only posted one miss in the past five years. For more on MS’ earnings, click here.

Bank of America BAC, hit by a $1.2 billion regulatory fine in its Q3, came up short of estimates this morning: earnings of $0.91 per share on revenues of $30.0 billion versus projections for $1.11 per share and $30.62 billion, respectively. This is only the second miss in the past five years for the big bank. Shares are down -7% in early trading, deepening from the stock’s -1.9% year to date.

Keeping with the finance companies another moment, BlackRock BLK posted strong numbers in its Q3 report ahead of today’s open. Earnings of $15.93 per share amounted to a +14% positive surprise, while revenues of $7.75 billion was up +3.96% from the Zacks consensus. Shares are up +2% in this tough trading environment. For more on BLK’s earnings, click here.

Auto insurance major The Progressive PGR posted a mixed Q3 this morning: earnings of $4.60 per share beat the $4.46 estimate on adjusted revenues of $23.36 billion, which narrowly missed the Zacks consensus. This does mark Progressive’s fourth-straight earnings beat, but shares are down -6% in pre-market trading.

Questions or comments about this article and/or author? Click here>>

Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report

This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

Zacks Investment Research