Dominion's Data-Center Boom Meets CVOW Delays And Merger Doubts Ahead Of Q3 Report

Dominion Energy heads into its third-quarter report with a peculiar disconnect. The regulated business underneath has rarely looked stronger, with record peak demand in Virginia and a data-center pipeline that keeps swelling. Yet the stock has slid about 10% since the last report, trailing the S&P 500 by roughly 14 percentage points. Investors appear to be discounting the company's growth story because of two distractions: a six-month slip at the Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind project and the regulatory journey of the pending combination with NextEra Energy. This report is a chance to show that the core earnings engine is running on schedule regardless.

The Street expects earnings of $1.17 per share on revenue of about $4.78 billion, up roughly 10% and 6% respectively from the year-ago quarter. That is solid growth for a regulated utility, and the third quarter typically carries a heavy share of the annual result thanks to summer cooling load. Management has reaffirmed 2026 guidance of $3.45 to $3.69 per share, and the $3.57 consensus sits comfortably in the middle of that range. With the second quarter delivering just $0.79, a clean third quarter matters for keeping the full-year math intact. A meaningful miss here would push the burden onto the fourth quarter and invite questions about whether the midpoint is still realistic.

Demand is the part of the story most likely to validate last quarter's optimism. Data-center capacity in various stages of contracting climbed above 53 gigawatts last quarter, with about 12 gigawatts under signed electric service agreements, up from 10.4 gigawatts a quarter earlier. Continued growth in signed agreements, rather than just the broader pipeline, would be the most convincing evidence that the expanded $65 billion five-year capital plan and its roughly 10% rate-base growth rest on firm commitments. Progress on the proposed gas plants at Kennedy Station and Mount Storm, plus any resolution of the Millstone zero-carbon solicitation, would add further support. On the other side, investors will want reassurance about the transmission fault that knocked data centers onto backup power, since grid reliability for large loads could become a regulatory sore point just as the company asks for more investment.

Offshore wind remains the swing factor for sentiment, even if not for near-term earnings. The final turbine is now expected by year-end 2027, a six-month push from the prior target, and costs rose about 2% to $11.65 billion. Because revenue is recognized string by string and cost recovery is effectively capped, management characterized the delay as largely neutral for earnings. What would challenge that framing is any further schedule drift, another cost increase, or evidence that installation productivity at the jacking-heavy locations has not improved. A quarter with no new surprises would go a long way toward rebuilding credibility after two revisions in a row.

The merger adds another layer. Virginia hearings begin November 17, shortly after this report, and some stakeholders have pushed for a longer review. Any update on the approval timeline or conditions in Virginia and South Carolina could move the stock as much as the quarterly numbers. Sentiment has improved notably, with bullish readings jumping from about 13% ahead of last quarter to nearly 47% now, suggesting some investors see the selloff as overdone. The stock, at $62.33, sits below its 200-day moving average of $64.53 and closer to the low end of its post-earnings range of $59.44 to $70.07, so the market is not pricing in much enthusiasm.

Ultimately, the question is whether Dominion can make the regulated growth story louder than the noise. A quarter near consensus, another step up in contracted data-center load, a quiet offshore wind update and steady merger progress would support the reaffirmed outlook and the upper-half long-term growth ambition. Fresh slippage on any of those fronts would suggest the discount the market has applied is warranted.

This earnings preview was originally published on Earnings Whispers.

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