Bull of the Day: Dollar General (DG)

Dollar General Corporation, a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), has spent the past few years quietly rebuilding a business the market had largely written off. The discount retailer stumbled badly through 2023 and 2024 on inventory problems, shrink and a stretched core customer. That turnaround is now showing up in the only place that ultimately matters — the numbers.

Shares have advanced roughly 35% over the past year while the broader retail tape has been anything but hospitable. Relative strength of that kind, paired with four consecutive quarters of meaningful earnings beats, is precisely the combination we look for.

Dollar General is part of the Zacks Retail – Discount Stores industry group, which currently ranks in the top 7% out of more than 250 Zacks Ranked Industries. Because it is ranked in the top half of all Zacks Ranked Industries, we expect this group to outperform over the next 3 to 6 months, just as it has over the past month:

Stocks in this industry are projected to experience above-average earnings growth while trading at reasonable valuations, a powerful combination that should lead to higher prices over time.

Historical research studies suggest that approximately half of a stock's price appreciation is due to its industry grouping. In fact, the top 50% of Zacks Ranked Industries outperforms the bottom 50% by a factor of more than 2 to 1.

It's no secret that investing in stocks that are part of leading industry groups can give us a leg up relative to the market. By focusing on leading stocks within the top 50% of Zacks Ranked Industries, we can dramatically improve our odds of success.

Company Description

Dollar General operates more than 20,000 small-format discount stores across the United States, concentrated in rural and small-town markets that larger competitors have historically underserved. The merchandise mix skews heavily toward consumables — food, cleaning supplies, health and beauty items — with seasonal goods, home products and apparel rounding out the assortment. The company was founded in 1939 and is headquartered in Goodlettsville, Tennessee.

The structural argument here is about location rather than price. Roughly 80% of Dollar General's stores sit in towns of 20,000 people or fewer, where the nearest alternative is often a meaningful drive away. That footprint is extremely difficult to replicate and it makes the chain a convenience business as much as a value business — a distinction that matters when fuel prices climb and household budgets tighten.

It is also worth naming what went wrong, because the recovery only makes sense against it. Dollar General overextended on new store openings, let inventory and shrink get away from it, and watched its core low-income customer absorb two years of cumulative price inflation. Management then slowed unit growth, invested in store labor, and leaned on markdowns and private label. The result has been a steady rebuild, and the fundamentals support that view.

Earnings Momentum and Rising Estimates

Dollar General DG reported fiscal second-quarter results in late August that beat on every line. Adjusted earnings of $2.23 per share rose 19.9% from the year-ago $1.86, and net sales grew 5.2% to $11.29 billion. The company has now delivered a trailing four-quarter average earnings surprise of 19.1%.

The composition of the comp is what I find most encouraging. Same-store sales grew 3.5% on a 2.0% increase in customer traffic and a 1.5% increase in average ticket. Traffic has been the scarce commodity across retail this year — a number of large chains have posted positive comps built entirely on price. Dollar General is bringing more people through the door, and it is doing so while gross margin expands, which argues the gains are not being bought with promotions.

Management responded by raising full-year fiscal 2026 guidance across the board: net sales growth to approximately 4.0–4.3% from 3.7–4.2%, same-store sales to 2.5–2.9% from 2.2–2.7%, and earnings per share to $7.80–$8.00 from $7.20–$7.45.

Analysts have followed. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the current fiscal year implies sales growth of 4.3% and earnings growth of 15.9% to $7.94 per share. Rising estimates of this kind are the engine behind the Zacks Rank #1.

Let's Get Technical

DG shares remain above an upward-sloping 50-day (blue line) moving average, and the stock has built a series of higher highs and higher lows over the past 6 months. Volume has expanded on the advances and contracted on the pullbacks, which is the accumulation signature we want to see.

This is the kind of stock we want to include in the portfolio — one that is trending well and receiving positive earnings estimate revisions at the same time. Empirical research shows a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions. As long as that trend remains intact and Dollar General continues to deliver earnings beats, the stock should extend its advance.

Bottom Line

There is a macro argument layered on top of the company-specific one. With core inflation reaccelerating and the consumer increasingly selective, trade-down behavior works in Dollar General's favor. The chain gains share precisely when households tighten up, and we are in one of those stretches.

Backed by a leading industry group, four consecutive earnings beats averaging better than 19%, and a guidance raise that extends well beyond a one-time tariff benefit, it isn't difficult to see why this company is a compelling investment. Dollar General carries a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) driven by favorable estimate momentum.

Robust fundamentals combined with a strong technical trend certainly justify adding shares to the mix. If you haven't already done so, be sure to put DG on your watchlist.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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