Jefferies believes demand for Apple’s (NASDAQ:AAPL) iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max is showing further signs of slowing, based on delivery times, resale prices and information from the company’s supply chain.
In a research note published Monday, analyst Edison Lee said the firm’s monitoring indicated weaker underlying demand for Apple’s latest premium smartphones.
“Our tracking continues to indicate weak demand for 18P/PM,” Lee wrote, referring to the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max.
The assessment follows changes in product availability and pricing across several markets, particularly China, where Jefferies has identified shorter delivery times and increased discounting.
According to Jefferies, delivery lead times for the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max in China have fallen to zero days, indicating immediate availability.
By comparison, the equivalent models from the previous year had delivery times of six and 25 days, respectively.
Jefferies also reported that delivery times in Japan are considerably shorter than those recorded a year earlier.
The situation in the United States differs, with lead times for the iPhone 18 Pro Max increasing compared with the previous year.
The brokerage considers shorter waiting periods one indicator of potentially softer demand, although delivery times can also be influenced by production capacity and inventory availability.
Jefferies identified increased discounting on Chinese retail platforms as another factor in its assessment.
On 16 October, Chinese e-commerce platform PDD began offering discounts of approximately 6% on the iPhone 18 Pro and 9% on the Pro Max.
The analyst also reported that resale prices for all Pro variants had moved below their original retail prices from 29 September.
In comparison, the previous year’s models were trading at resale premiums of between 1% and 6% during the corresponding period.
The change indicates that the latest devices are experiencing different pricing conditions in the secondary market.
Jefferies views the combination of retail discounts and lower resale values as evidence supporting its assessment of weaker underlying demand.
Jefferies said information gathered from industry contacts suggests Apple has reduced orders for certain iPhone components by approximately 10% to 15%.
The reported reductions include orders for chips manufactured using 2-nanometre technology.
However, some supply chain participants indicated that the net reduction in final assembly orders has so far amounted to approximately 2 million units.
This distinction suggests that component order adjustments have not necessarily translated into equivalent reductions in completed smartphone production.
“We will continue to monitor supply chain feedback, but do believe further order cuts are possible if weak demand continues,” Lee said.
The figures are based on industry checks reported by Jefferies rather than production changes formally confirmed by Apple.
Jefferies also examined sales figures indicating that iPhone volumes in China increased by more than 40% year on year during the first two weeks following the start of shipments.
That growth subsequently moderated to approximately 8% in early October.
The brokerage attributed part of the initial increase to discounted sales through retail channels of remaining iPhone 17 Pro and Pro Max inventory.
According to Jefferies, these sales may have contributed to the reported growth in overall iPhone volumes without necessarily indicating equivalent demand for the newer iPhone 18 models.
The distinction between total iPhone sales and sales of the latest premium models is central to the firm’s assessment.
Jefferies also commented on demand for Apple’s foldable Duo smartphone following the start of pre-orders on 16 October.
The device’s delivery lead time extended beyond 90 days after pre-orders opened.
Based on that waiting period, Jefferies estimated that Duo shipments could reach a maximum of approximately 6 million to 7 million units in 2026.
The estimate is broadly consistent with existing market expectations, according to the brokerage.
However, extended lead times may reflect production constraints as well as customer demand, particularly for a newly introduced product category.
Jefferies intends to continue tracking delivery times, retail pricing, resale values and feedback from Apple’s component suppliers and assembly partners.
Further reductions in component or assembly orders could provide additional information about how Apple is adjusting production to match demand.
The brokerage will also be assessing whether recent discounting in China persists and whether sales growth for the latest iPhone models differs from broader iPhone shipment trends.
For now, Jefferies maintains that demand indicators for the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max have weakened, while the foldable Duo’s delivery times suggest a different supply-and-demand pattern.
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