DraftKings Inc. (NASDAQ:DKNG) shares declined on Monday after Susquehanna reported that sports betting results remained unfavourable for bookmakers during October, according to estimates generated by the investment firm’s proprietary modelling system.
The analysis indicated that betting outcomes across major US sporting events continued to put pressure on sportsbook hold rates, following similarly unfavourable conditions in September.
Susquehanna’s latest assessment covered National Football League (NFL), college football and National Basketball Association (NBA) games, with both its football-only and combined football and basketball models indicating unfavourable conditions for operators.
The findings suggest that sporting results may have affected bookmaker profitability during October, although the analysis represents model estimates rather than confirmed financial results from DraftKings.
Susquehanna’s proprietary national sports betting model indicated that October was another challenging month for sportsbook operators.
The firm’s analysis showed unfavourable hold conditions for bookmakers, extending the negative trend recorded in September.
Both months also showed year-on-year declines in the model’s estimated hold performance.
In sports betting, hold refers to the proportion of customer wagers retained by an operator after paying out winnings.
A higher hold generally benefits bookmakers, while a lower hold means a larger share of wagers is returned to customers.
Unfavourable sporting outcomes can therefore reduce sportsbook revenue even when betting activity remains strong.
Susquehanna’s findings suggest that recent game results may have weighed on operators’ ability to retain wagering revenue during the period.
However, the analysis did not provide a specific estimated hold percentage for DraftKings or quantify the potential financial impact on the company.
The latest weekly assessment covered NFL Week 8 and college football Week 9, alongside the second week of the NBA season.
Susquehanna estimated that football betting results were unfavourable for bookmakers during the period.
This represented a deterioration from the previous week, when the firm’s football-only model indicated neutral hold conditions.
The change suggests that game outcomes during the latest reporting period were less favourable for sportsbook operators.
When basketball results were incorporated into the analysis, the combined model continued to indicate unfavourable hold.
The findings show that the addition of NBA betting activity did not materially change the negative assessment generated by the football-only model.
Nevertheless, the estimates reflect the firm’s proprietary calculations and do not represent actual reported sportsbook revenue.
Susquehanna uses a national modelling system to assess how sporting results may influence sportsbook hold performance.
The model monitors NFL games played on Sunday and Monday nights, as well as college football games scheduled from Wednesday through Saturday.
It also incorporates NBA games played throughout the week, from Monday to Sunday.
The firm began publishing a combined football and basketball hold analysis following the start of the NBA season on October 20, 2026.
College basketball, which began its season on November 1, 2026, also forms part of the evolving sports betting calendar.
The analysis allows Susquehanna to assess betting outcomes across multiple sports rather than relying exclusively on football results.
However, the model covers selected sporting events and does not capture every wager placed across the US sports betting market.
Its findings should therefore be considered an indicator of broader industry conditions rather than a complete measurement of bookmaker performance.
Susquehanna also provided information about the relationship between its national estimates and actual sports betting data reported by New York state.
The firm’s football-only hold model has demonstrated a correlation of 0.72 with New York’s reported figures.
Its combined football and basketball model has shown a correlation of 0.68.
These figures indicate a positive relationship between the firm’s model estimates and the state-level data, although the relationship is not exact.
A correlation closer to 1.0 would indicate a stronger positive statistical relationship, while lower values suggest greater differences between the datasets.
The reported correlations provide context for assessing the model’s historical alignment with published betting results.
However, they do not guarantee that future estimates will accurately predict actual sportsbook hold or individual operator performance.
New York’s weekly sports betting figures are generally released approximately three days after the relevant reporting period ends on Sunday.
This reporting schedule means Susquehanna’s national estimates may provide an earlier indication of betting conditions before official state figures become available.
However, differences between the national model and New York’s reported data can arise for several reasons.
Local sporting results can influence betting activity and payout patterns within a particular state.
Variations in wagering volumes among high-value customers, commonly referred to as VIP bettors, can also affect reported hold.
Additionally, Susquehanna’s model assesses national betting outcomes, while New York’s figures reflect activity within a single state.
These differences mean that the national model and state-level data may not move in precisely the same direction during every reporting period.
DraftKings shares declined following the publication of Susquehanna’s latest analysis, reflecting concerns about the potential effect of unfavourable sporting results on sportsbook revenue.
For operators such as DraftKings, betting hold is an important component of financial performance because it determines how much wagering activity translates into retained revenue.
A period of unfavourable results can reduce revenue relative to the amount wagered, even without a corresponding decline in customer activity.
However, hold performance can fluctuate significantly between weeks and months as sporting outcomes change.
The latest Susquehanna analysis does not establish the actual financial effect on DraftKings, and the company has not provided specific October hold figures in the information reported.
The share price reaction therefore reflects market concerns arising from industry modelling rather than confirmed company results.
Susquehanna’s October assessment suggests that sportsbook operators experienced a second consecutive month of unfavourable betting outcomes.
The firm’s football-only model indicated a deterioration from neutral conditions in the previous week, while its combined football and basketball analysis also remained negative.
The findings follow unfavourable hold estimates for September, with both months showing year-on-year declines.
Investors will be monitoring upcoming New York sports betting data to assess how closely the official figures align with Susquehanna’s national estimates.
Attention will also remain on whether betting results improve during November as the NFL, college football and basketball seasons continue.
For DraftKings, the financial implications will depend on actual customer wagering activity, realised hold rates and other operating factors.
While the latest analysis points to potentially challenging betting conditions, it does not provide sufficient information to determine the company’s October revenue or earnings performance.
DraftKings stock price
| 8 hours | |
| Oct-29 | |
| Oct-28 | |
| Oct-27 | |
| Oct-27 | |
| Oct-21 | |
| Oct-21 | |
| Oct-19 | |
| Oct-19 | |
| Oct-16 | |
| Oct-15 | |
| Oct-15 | |
| Oct-15 | |
| Oct-14 | |
| Oct-14 |
Fanatics CEO Warns $7 Billion Betting Ad War Looms as Kalshi, Polymarket Join Fight
DKNG
Benzinga Prediction Markets
|
Join thousands of traders who make more informed decisions with our premium features. Real-time quotes, advanced visualizations, alerts, and much more.
Learn more about Finviz Elite