Take-Two Shares Rise 1.5% as Teen Survey Signals Strong Demand for GTA 6

Take-Two Interactive Software (NASDAQ:TTWO) shares gained approximately 1.5% in pre-market trading on Monday after a Piper Sandler survey indicated strong interest in the upcoming Grand Theft Auto 6 (GTA 6), although analysts highlighted potential limitations to the game’s addressable market.

The survey, involving approximately 9,000 teenagers, found that 70% of respondents who own the latest generation of gaming consoles intend to purchase GTA 6. Of those surveyed, 55% plan to buy the game immediately, while another 15% expect to wait several months.

GTA Online Expected to Attract Strong Engagement

Among teenagers planning to purchase GTA 6, approximately 90% said they intend to play GTA Online, indicating substantial potential for recurring revenue.

Piper Sandler’s analysis suggested a payer rate of approximately 44% for GTA Online, considerably higher than comparable gaming platforms.

However, the survey also found that approximately 21% of active consoles are located in households with multiple consoles, potentially reducing the number of individual game purchases.

“We would not expect these respondents would be likely to purchase 2 game copies, which would require placing a discount on total active consoles. While we expected overlap, this was a bit higher than our base assumption,” Piper Sandler analysts said.

Analysts Forecast Lower Bookings Ahead of Earnings

For Take-Two’s upcoming earnings announcement, Piper Sandler projects total bookings of $1.64 billion, representing a 16% decline year over year, alongside adjusted EBITDA of $123 million.

The forecast includes recurrent consumer spending of $1.36 billion, down 5%, and mobile bookings of $751 million, representing an 8% decrease from the previous year.

Unit sales bookings are projected at $279 million.

Despite the encouraging GTA 6 survey results, analysts noted weaker third-party data for Take-Two’s mobile operations and NBA 2K franchise, which could create pressure on the company’s financial outlook.

Outlook

Piper Sandler expects Take-Two management to provide positive commentary on GTA 6 demand during its upcoming earnings announcement.

However, the firm noted that Take-Two has historically avoided making significant changes to annual guidance based solely on pre-order demand for major game releases.

While the survey points to considerable commercial potential for GTA 6 and GTA Online, investors will also be monitoring mobile gaming performance, NBA 2K trends and any revisions to full-year guidance.

Take-Two Interactive Software stock price