Amgen Beats And Raises Again As Imdelltra Data Strengthen The Pipeline, But Growth Is Decelerating Beneath The Headline

Amgen delivered a clean headline beat for the third quarter. Non-GAAP earnings were $6.45 per share, ahead of the $5.74 consensus and the $6.07 Earnings Whisper number, a 6.3% surprise. Revenue of $10.365 billion topped the $9.95 billion consensus by 4.2%. Earnings grew 14.4% year over year and revenue rose 8.5%. Management raised full-year guidance for the third consecutive quarter, to $38.9-$39.7 billion in revenue and $22.90-$23.70 in non-GAAP EPS. The raise landed in line with estimates rather than above them. That is the central tension: the pipeline story got materially stronger this quarter, while the near-term growth rate cooled and the stock entered the report already pricing in much of the good news.

The quality of the beat deserves some scrutiny. Non-GAAP operating income rose to $4.68 billion from $4.31 billion, but operating margin improved only 0.2 points to 47.3%. Non-GAAP cost of sales rose 1.1 points as a share of product sales because of higher profit-share expense and mix, and R&D grew 11%. Below the operating line, the non-GAAP tax rate fell 2.3 points to 15.9%, and non-GAAP other income increased. Both helped push EPS growth ahead of operating income growth. GAAP EPS jumped 19% to $7.08, but that figure leans heavily on lower acquisition amortization and $1.47 billion of equity-investment gains. Free cash flow of $3.7 billion fell from $4.2 billion a year ago, which the company attributed to favorable rebate timing in the prior-year quarter.

The call showed a portfolio in transition. The six growth drivers accelerated to 27% growth, up from 26% in Q2 and 24% in Q1, and now account for more than 70% of product sales:

• **Repatha** grew 37% to $1.1 billion, with U.S. new-to-brand prescriptions up 60%.
• **Tezspire** grew 43%.
• **Evenity** grew 39%.
• **Uplizna** nearly tripled to $451 million.
• **Imdelltra** more than doubled to $406 million.

The erosion is just as real. Prolia fell 45% and Xgeva fell 47% under biosimilar competition. Otezla dropped 18%, and Enbrel absorbed a 14% net price decline from Medicare Part D price setting. Total revenue growth slowed to 8% from 10% in Q2. The number of products growing at double digits fell to 17 from 22. Tepezza swung to a 6% decline after growing 14% in Q2 and 29% in Q1, partly on prior-year inventory comparisons. Pavblu's growth moderated to 41% from 121%.

The forward story is where Amgen made its strongest case:

• **Imdelltra:** The Phase 3 DeLLphi-305 trial showed that adding Imdelltra to Imfinzi in first-line maintenance for small cell lung cancer cut the risk of death by 58%, with median overall survival of 21.1 versus 12.7 months. The FDA also cut Imdelltra's monitoring window to 6-8 hours from 22-24, a practical barrier to broader use removed.
• **Other readouts:** Tezspire posted positive Phase 3 results in eosinophilic esophagitis, and dazodalibep succeeded in systemic Sjögren's. Daxdilimab is moving toward Phase 3.
• **MariTide:** The cardiovascular outcomes trial and both sleep apnea studies completed enrollment.
• **Margins:** Management said it does not expect an operating-margin step-down in 2027.

Bears still have legitimate ammunition:

• The full-year operating margin guide of 45-46% was only reaffirmed, implying a meaningful fourth-quarter expense step-up.
• The FDA's request to withdraw Tavneos remains unresolved.
• Subcutaneous blinatumomab studies are still on partial clinical hold.
• Management declined to draw read-through to the symptomatic Sjögren's study due in Q4.
• Analysts raised obesity reimbursement uncertainty and the trade-off between biosimilar and MariTide manufacturing capacity.

The market setup is more complicated than the surprise implies. Shares rose 18.3% from the open after the August report to $465.45 and sat 24% above their 200-day moving average. They were just 2.1% below a 52-week high of $475.65 set on October 30, after rallying roughly 24% from a mid-September low. Investor sentiment, meanwhile, slipped from mildly positive (0.086) to slightly negative (-0.027). That is a modest shift, but it suggests enthusiasm was not keeping pace with the price. Most Earnings Whispers trend readings remain positive, while sequential growth is neutral, consistent with the mixed quarter-over-quarter operating picture.

The bottom line is that Amgen reported a quarter that improved the long-term thesis more than the near-term one. The beat was solid, though partly aided by tax and other income. Guidance moved higher but only to where the Street already was. Headline growth is decelerating as biosimilar erosion offsets strong growth-driver momentum. What changed is the pipeline: DeLLphi-305 and a string of Phase 3 wins give Amgen credible new growth vectors beyond MariTide. With the stock near its highs and sentiment cooling, the question now is whether that pipeline value can keep supporting the shares while headline growth slows.

Read our earnings preview for Amgen, Inc.: https://www.earningswhispers.com/article/AMGN/21546

This earnings review was originally published on Earnings Whispers.

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