Divided Government Sends the Dow Up 1000 Points

Wednesday, November 4th, 2026

With the long-awaited end of the U.S. midterm elections finally upon us, the uncertainty regarding their outcome is helping pre-market futures rally this morning. The blue-chip Dow is up +1013 points at this hour, the S&P 500 is +80 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq, even with its AI infrastructure now in the crosshairs of the Democratic Party, is +97 points. The small-cap Russell 2000 is also up an impressive +47 points at this hour.

Perhaps as much as the uncertainty being over, Wall Street traditionally tends to favor divided government. With big wins for Democrats in both the House (upwards of 250 members are expected to be seated in January) and Senate (a 54-seat majority, with two states still outstanding) and the Trump White House representing the GOP, the U.S. now has the epitome of divided government. (Had 60 seats somehow gone Democratic, that would have meant potential veto overrides — a much different story.)

Bond yields are mixed this morning: the 10-year and 2-year are down to +4.935% and +4.593%, respectively. The 30-year, on the other hand, has ticked up to +5.326% ahead of today’s open. Spot oil prices have cooled to $93 per barrel (/bbl) on WTI and $102/bbl on Brent crude, partly on the prospect that a Congressional makeover may put pressure on the White House to bring the Iran war to an end in the near term.

Finally, a quick look at a CNBC Voter Poll shows where the pressure points for the midterms were: among those issues voters found “crucial,” Corruption led the way: +54%, followed by Cost of Living +49%, Immigration +36%, the War in Iran +34% and AI Data Centers +23%. Young voters, age 18-29, skewed Democratic by +47 points.
 

ADP Private-Sector Jobs Steady at +86K

Meanwhile, “Jobs Week” continues this morning with private-sector payroll results for October from Automatic Data Processing ADP, where the headline +86K new jobs was exactly where the downwardly revised tally for September came in. This is roughly the mid-point in private-sector jobs gains since this past spring, between May’s high at +122K and August’s low +36K. Today’s result was also ahead of the consensus expectation of +75K.

Medium-sized businesses (between 50-499 employees) grew the most private-sector jobs last month: +33K. Small firms gained +28K and large companies added +24K to their workforces. By industry, Trade/Transportation/Utilities led with +39K new private-sector positions, with Education/Healthcare at +28K and Leisure/Hospitality +19K. Professional/Business Services lost -27K jobs, Mining was -8K and Information Services -2K.
 

Earnings Reports at a Glance: MCD, CVS & More

This morning, CVS Health CVS posted a big +29% earnings beat to $2.09 per share, though company plans to separate its healthcare business looks to be pushing shares down -4% in pre-market trading. For more on CVS’ earnings, click here.

McDonald’s MCD outpaced estimates by +6.25% in its Q3 this morning, with shares +2% on the news. The stock is still down year-to-date, and domestic sales remain challenged. For more on MCD’s earnings, click here.

Kraft-Heinz KHC saw a +23% earnings surprise to $0.53 per share, but pre-market trading is flat, just as the stock has been performing through 2026 thus far. For more on KHC’s earnings, click here.

Wayfair W posted a +12% earnings beat in its Q3 results this morning, helping add +4% to its share price ahead of the bell, adding to its +10% gains year to date. For more on W’s earnings, click here.

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