Great Jobless Claims & Productivity Keep Dow Alight

Thursday, November 5th, 2026

Pre-market futures are mixed ahead of Thursday’s open, following one of the strongest days on the major indexes of 2026. The Dow rose +3%, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq on either side of +1.5% growth. The cloak of uncertainty regarding the midterm elections fell, and the divided government that Wall Street prefers formed in its place.

Bond yields have moderated of late, but are also tightening margins somewhat: the 10-year is currently at +4.904% and the 2-year is +4.616% — illustrating a flatter curve than the normal 40 basis points (bps). The 30-year is +5.283% at this hour, which more directly related to long-term fixed mortgage rates. Oil prices are up slightly but still south of $100 per barrel (/bbl), even on London-based Brent crude.
 

Jobless Claims Sink to Post-Covid Lows

This morning, Initial Jobless Claims sank back to post-Covid lows, with +189K matching the mid-July low — the best read on jobless claims since 1968! This was well below the +197K expected (even estimates are now sub-200K these days) and the slightly upwardly revised +195K from the previous week. Despite JOLTS numbers (reported earlier this week, for the prior month) depicting workers as somewhat fearful of losing their jobs, these jobless claims suggest all is well in the domestic labor force.

Ditto for Continuing Claims, which came off the downwardly revised best week in nearly 60 years — +1.695 million — to finish slightly higher at 1.718 million. For scale, consider that economists do not fret conditions in the labor market until longer-term claims get to around +2 million; during and after the Great Recession of 2008-09, the goal week over week was to get longer-term claims beneath +3 million per week.
 

Q3 Productivity Surprises Higher: +3.6%

For even more good news, Q3 Productivity — known as the “secret sauce” in the U.S. economy — jumped to +3.6% from an expected +2.9%. This was also a big improvement from the previous quarter, which was revised up to +2.1% from +1.4% last reported. This is the strongest level of U.S. productivity since Q3 of last year, which came in at +5.2%.

Unit Labor Costs, the other side of that coin, dropped to -0.7% — another favorable development from expectations. Expanding and increasing productivity while labor costs fall is obviously good news for the overall economy, as they add growth without ladeling higher inflation into the mix. 
 

Morning Earnings Reports at a Glance: COP, TRIP & More

Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy)-rated ConocoPhillips COP outpaced expectations this morning, reporting earnings of $3.27 per share, which improved over the Zacks consensus by +6.36%. Shares are up +1.2% on the news, adding to the stock’s +46% gains year to date.

TripAdvisor TRIP, on the other hand, missed earnings estimates, $0.37 vs $0.52 expected, amounting to a -28.85% negative surprise. Shares on the Zacks Rank #4 (Sell)-rated company are down -20.9%, deepening the -20.9% hole the stock has been in year to date. 

Planet Fitness PLNT, on the other hand, appears to be turning its fortunes around somewhat: the company beat on its bottom line by 4 cents to $0.83 per share, and shares are up +1.3%. The health fitness enterprise still has a long way before it fills in its -47% hole on market price from the first of the year.

The Southern Company SO outperformed bottom-line estimates by +13.45% this morning: $1.94 per share versus $1.71 expected. Shares are up +1.2% on the news, adding to the company’s modest +6.8% gains year to date.

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