Meritage Homes Corporation (MTH): Among Billionaire David Harding's Stock Picks with Huge Upside Potential

We recently published a list of Billionaire David Harding’s 10 Stock Picks with Huge Upside Potential. In this article, we are going to take a look at where Meritage Homes Corporation (NYSE:MTH) stands against other billionaire David Harding’s stock picks with huge upside potential.

David Harding is a British hedge fund manager and physicist by training, studied natural sciences at St. Catharine’s College, University of Cambridge, with a focus on theoretical physics. His education in empirical science would go on to inform his pioneering approach to financial markets. Harding began his career in finance in the mid-1980s, working at Sabre Fund Management. At Sabre, he was instrumental in developing early systematic trading models that used statistical analysis to identify patterns in market behavior. This experience laid the foundation for his future endeavors in quantitative finance.

In 1997, he established Winton Capital Management (now Winton Group), with the goal of applying scientific research and data-driven techniques to financial markets. Under Harding’s leadership, Winton grew rapidly, at one point managing over $28 billion in assets. The firm became one of the most prominent names in the quantitative hedge fund space, known for its commitment to rigorous data analysis and skepticism toward discretionary trading. Winton’s strategies typically involve global futures and equities, relying on vast historical datasets and algorithmic models rather than human intuition.

In recent years, Harding’s firm has experienced a resurgence. After a significant downturn, Winton rebounded with a 47% return in 2022, marking its best performance since the financial crisis. As of the end of last year, the firm’s assets under management had risen to $12.3 billion, reflecting a strong recovery. ​Winton remains committed to its systematic, research-driven approach. The firm’s ability to adapt to changing market conditions and its focus on long-term trends suggest potential for sustained performance in the future.

At the LSEG Lipper Fund Awards 2024, Winton Capital Management was honored with the “Best Fund over 3 Years” award in the Managed Futures category. This accolade recognizes the firm’s outstanding risk-adjusted performance over a three-year period. The Awards are based on the Lipper Leader rating for Consistent Return, which evaluates funds using a risk-adjusted performance measure over multiple non-overlapping periods. This methodology ensures that the winners have provided superior consistency and risk-adjusted returns compared to similar funds. This recognition underscores Winton’s commitment to delivering high-quality, systematic investment strategies that prioritize consistent performance for investors.

Our Methodology

For this list, we picked stocks from Winston Group’s 13F portfolio as of the end of the fourth quarter of 2024. We listed them in the ascending order of analysts’ average upside potential. These equities are also popular among other hedge funds.

Note: All data was recorded on April 29, 2025.

At Insider Monkey we are obsessed with the stocks that hedge funds pile into. The reason is simple: our research has shown that we can outperform the market by imitating the top stock picks of the best hedge funds. Our quarterly newsletter’s strategy selects 14 small-cap and large-cap stocks every quarter and has returned 373.4% since May 2014, beating its benchmark by 218 percentage points (see more details here).

Meritage Homes Corporation (NYSE:MTH)

Winton Group’s stake: $13,014,710

Upside Potential: 38.89%

Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 39

Meritage Homes Corporation (NYSE:MTH) is a prominent U.S. homebuilder focused on single-family attached and detached homes, primarily in high-growth markets across 12 states. Operating through three regional segments—West, Central, and East—and a financial services segment, the company offers title, mortgage, and insurance services via subsidiaries like Carefree Title and Meritage Insurance. As of December 31, 2024, it was actively selling homes in 292 communities, with an average sales price of approximately $406,000.

In Q1 2025, Meritage Homes Corporation (NYSE:MTH) reported strong results despite ongoing economic uncertainty. The company sold nearly 3,900 homes and closed 3,416, generating $1.3 billion in home revenues. Over 60% of closings came from homes sold within the same quarter, aided by their strategy of releasing homes within 60 days of completion. This approach helped offset high mortgage rates and cautious buyer sentiment. Despite affordability challenges, buyer demand remains solid, especially in the entry-level market. Meritage continues to focus on maintaining steady sales pace, optimizing margins, and managing land positions carefully in a volatile housing market.

Meritage Homes Corporation (NYSE:MTH) ‘s strategy focuses on affordability, certainty, and move-in-ready homes with a 60-day closing, creating a competitive edge amid resale inventory. At the end of the quarter, spec and backlog units totaled ~8,800, with spec homes up 13% year-over-year. Completed specs held steady at 39%. Strong backlog conversion lowered ending backlog to ~2,000 homes. Home closing revenue reached $1.3B, with ASP down due to incentives. Despite market softness, gross margin remained resilient at 22%, supported by cost savings and strategic inventory management.

Overall, MTH ranks 6th on our list of billionaire David Harding’s stock picks with huge upside potential. While we acknowledge the growth potential of MTH, our conviction lies in the belief that AI stocks hold great promise for delivering high returns and doing so within a shorter time frame. There is an AI stock that went up since the beginning of 2025, while popular AI stocks lost around 25%. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than MTH but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about this cheapest AI stock.

READ NEXT: 20 Best AI Stocks To Buy Now and 30 Best Stocks to Buy Now According to Billionaires.

Disclosure: None. This article is originally published at Insider Monkey.