Novavax to Report First-Quarter Earnings: Is a Beat in Store?

We expect Novavax NVAX to surpass expectations when it reports first-quarter 2025 earnings on May 8, before the opening bell. The company’s earnings beat estimates by 32% in the last reported quarter.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales is pegged at $71.84 million, while that for earnings is pinned at 19 cents per share. (Find the latest EPS estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar)

Factors Shaping NVAX’s Upcoming Results

Starting this year, pharma giant Sanofi SNY acquired exclusive rights to market the company’s protein-based COVID-19 vaccine globally (except in certain countries where Novavax has existing partnership agreements). This is part of the company’s recently signed multi-billion-dollar deal, wherein Sanofi assumed commercial responsibility for the vaccine. Based on this transfer of rights, we do not expect Novavax to record product sales from its COVID-19 vaccine.

We expect the company to provide an update on the technology transfer (related to its COVID-19 vaccine) to Sanofi, as well as the transfer of marketing authorizations in the United States and Europe. The company is eligible to receive certain milestone payments from SNY on the completion of these events.

Last December, Novavax started the phase III study evaluating its experimental COVID-19-influenza combination (CIC) and stand-alone influenza vaccine candidates. This study is comparing the immunogenicity and safety of the CIC vaccine with separate administrations of Novavax’s currently authorized COVID-19 vaccine and a licensed seasonal influenza vaccine. It is also assessing the immunogenicity and safety of the standalone influenza vaccine. Investors would be interested in seeking updates from the company on this study’s progress.

They would also seek an update from Novavax on the progress of its preclinical pipeline, which includes vaccines for RSV and H5N1 bird flu. Novavax is also advancing core technology for different uses, like mucosal vaccination and high-density nanoparticles. It intends to focus on exploring RSV-combination options and new opportunities in diseases like varicella-zoster virus (shingles) and Clostridium difficile (C. Diff.) colitis. The company is also planning to expand into the field of oncology.

NVAX’s Earnings Surprise History

The biotech firm’s earnings beat estimates in two of the trailing four quarters and missed the mark on the other two occasions, delivering an average negative surprise of 0.48%.

Novavax, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Novavax, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Novavax, Inc. Quote

Novavax’s shares have lost 20% year to date compared with the industry’s 3% decline.

What Our Model Predicts for NVAX

Per our proven model, companies with the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) have a good chance of delivering an earnings beat. This is the case here. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Novavax has an Earnings ESP of +495.75% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Other Stocks to Consider

Here are some other biotech stocks that have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle:

CytomX Therapeutics CTMX has an Earnings ESP of +38.89% and a Zacks Rank #1 at present.

CytomX Therapeutics’ shares have plunged 22% year to date. CytomXbeat on earnings in three of the trailing four quarters and missed in the other one, delivering an average surprise of 180.70%.

argenx ARGX has an Earnings ESP of +10.92% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present.

argenx stock gained 6% in the year-to-date period. It beat on earnings in two of the last four quarters and missed in the other two, delivering an average surprise of 345.11%. ARGX is set to report earnings on May 8, before market open.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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