The Mosaic Company MOS has updated its guidance for the second quarter and full-year 2025. It has raised the outlook for phosphate prices. Strong market conditions have caused DAP price outlook to rise from $635-$655 per ton to $650-$670 per ton. Potash prices remain stable, with guidance for MOP prices unchanged at $230 to $250 per ton.
The full-year phosphate production volume is predicted to be 7.0–7.3 million tons (Mt), which has been lowered from the prior estimate of 7.2–7.6 Mt. Phosphate sales volumes are forecast to be 1.5–1.6 Mt for the second quarter (down from 1.7–1.9 Mt expected earlier). The estimated sales volumes of potash remain unchanged at 2.3–2.5 Mt for the second quarter, while production volumes have been reaffirmed at 9.0–9.4 Mt for the entire year.
The Bartow phosphate facility is expected to produce more than 500,000 tons in the second quarter (annualized over 2 Mt), meeting its operational targets. New Wales phosphate facility is projected to increase production by more than 20% in the second quarter from the prior quarter.
Planned downtimes at Riverview are expected to cause production to miss initial expectations, with production in the third quarter likely to reach a run rate corresponding to the annualized output of 1.6 Mt. The extended outage at MOS’s Louisiana facilities also led to lost production. The facility is expected to perform at its target annual run rate of 1.4 million tons in the third quarter. MOS is optimistic about its production for the second half and expects operating rates to achieve the 8-million-ton target run rate across its U.S. phosphate assets.
Furthermore, Mosaic Fertilizantes is expected to considerably boost second-quarter results, driven by rising prices, improved distribution margins, operational efficiencies and a favorable currency environment.
Shares of Mosaic have gained 21% in the past year compared with the Zacks Fertilizers industry’s 15.2% rise.
Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchMOS’s Rank & Other Key Picks
MOS currently carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy).
Other top-ranked stocks in the basic materials space include Carpenter Technology Corporation CRS, Alamos Gold Inc. AGI and Hawkins, Inc. HWKN
Carpenter Technology currently carries a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). CRS beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the last four quarters, with the average earnings surprise being 11.1%. The company's shares have soared 139.2% in the past year. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Alamos Gold's current-year earnings is pegged at $1.24 per share. AGI, carrying a Zacks Rank #1, surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the trailing four quarters, while missing twice, with an average earnings surprise of 1.4%. The company's shares have rallied 65.1% in the past year.
Hawkins, which currently carries a Zacks Rank #2, beat the consensus estimate in one of the trailing four quarters, while missing thrice. In this time frame, it has delivered an earnings surprise of roughly 8.2%, on average. The company's shares have rallied 54.6% in the past year.
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Carpenter Technology Corporation (CRS): Free Stock Analysis Report The Mosaic Company (MOS): Free Stock Analysis Report Alamos Gold Inc. (AGI): Free Stock Analysis Report Hawkins, Inc. (HWKN): Free Stock Analysis ReportThis article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
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