StoneCo Eyes 18% EPS Growth in 2025: What's Fueling It?

For 2025, StoneCo Ltd. STNE has simplified its guidance to two key financial indicators – adjusted gross profit and adjusted earnings per share (EPS). The company expects its adjusted gross profit and adjusted EPS to grow 14% and 18%, respectively, year over year. It demonstrated strong momentum and surpassed early milestones, reaffirming confidence in its 2025 financial outlook. 

In the first quarter 2025, gross profit increased 19% year over year, surpassing the yearly guidance. In addition, EPS increased 36%, almost double the predicted rise for the entire year. This outperformance was driven by disciplined marketing spend, effective repricing and operational efficiency. 

As the repricing efforts gain traction, the company expects a slight slowdown in MSMB TPV growth. Through this, STNE is prioritizing profitability over volume. However, it is still dedicated to achieving its 14% TPV CAGR by 2027. In order to reduce financing costs and improve margins in the upcoming quarters, StoneCo implemented a cash sweep plan, converting retail deposits into on-platform time deposits. In line with this, in the first quarter, R$6.3 billion out of the total R$8.3 billion in retail deposits were moved into time deposits. 

The company expanded its credit portfolio to R$1.4 billion with low default rates and a combination of working capital loans and new microcredit solutions. These perfectly align with its long-term objectives. In the first quarter, the gross profit-to-TPV ratio increased 5bps to 1.23%. The entire repricing impact is anticipated to contribute positively. 

2025 Financial Outlook of STNE’s Competitors

PagSeguro Digital Ltd. PAGS has provided a steady and resilient outlook for 2025, driven by operational excellence and the strategic initiatives taken to mitigate macro uncertainties, especially the increase in interest rates. The company expects gross profit growth between 7% and 11% year over year. 

Meanwhile, PagSeguro anticipates delivering EPS growth of 11-15% year over year. Capital expenditure is projected to be between BRL 2.2 billion and BRL 2.4 billion. Management expects to continue outperforming industry benchmarks, especially in cards and PIX, supported by strong e-commerce and cross-border performance.

For 2025, DLocal Limited DLO projects continued strong growth momentum, driven by investments in technology, product innovation and market expansion. The company expects a strong TPV growth of 35-45% year over year, with revenue growth of 25-35%. Gross profit is anticipated to improve 20-25% year over year, with adjusted EBITDA growth between 20% and 30%.

STNE’s Stock Price Performance

Year to date, shares of StoneCo have gained 72.2% compared with the industry’s growth of 10.7%. The S&P 500 composite also grew 1.2% in the same period.

StoneCo’s Valuation

STNE’s valuation looks attractive. The stock trades at a forward 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) of 9.04X, lower than the industry average of 39.01X. It carries a Value Score of B.

STNE Consensus Estimate Trend

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for STNE’s earnings has moved north over the past 60 days.

STNE stock currently sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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