BigBear.ai Poised to Benefit as Palantir Dominates AI Defense

Each market cycle brings about names that become market leaders in terms of price action, reaching stratospheric valuations and wiping out all sellers who are stubborn enough to fight them. While most will stay on the sidelines and call them expensive, seasoned investors know that some companies are worth overpaying for when the story and the numbers start to line up.

Right now, Palantir Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ: PLTR) is that story. Shares are up 476.4% over the past year, driven by growing demand for AI solutions tied to national security and large-scale infrastructure.

For those who aren’t comfortable chasing the highs, BigBear.ai Holdings Inc. (NYSE: BBAI) may be the next name to benefit from this trend.

The company focuses on AI-powered decision support, helping organizations manage and analyze data at scale across complex systems.

Its growing relevance in key sectors, along with fresh institutional interest and bullish revenue guidance, sets the stage for what could be the next move in this space.

The Law of Large Numbers Favors BigBear.ai Stock

Palantir’s success has led to a massive market capitalization of up to $324 billion today. While this can be a strong leading indicator of continued success, it also creates a sort of cap on how much more performance it can deliver to its shareholders.

It isn’t the same to go from a $5 billion market cap into a $10 billion one as it is to go from $300 billion into $600 billion, though the percentages are the same. This is why examining military artificial intelligence companies can be a fruitful endeavor, as those seeking a similar “home run” and missing Palantir’s rally may eventually find this spill-over effect.

This is where BigBear.ai stock comes into play; at a market cap of only $1.2 billion, there is a significant upside potential that remains untapped, in which the company can turn from a small-cap name into a large-cap one in a matter of a few quarters (just like Palantir did).

However, these bold assumptions must have some backing, so investors can now start to gauge the market’s take on BigBear.ai and whether its fundamentals justify this view.

Numbers Confirm BigBear.ai’s Bull Case

For stocks like BigBear.ai, the present tells only part of the story. While last quarter’s 5% year-over-year revenue growth to $34.8 million may seem underwhelming, it’s the forward guidance that demands attention. Management projects revenues could climb as high as $180 million, more than five times the latest results.

That kind of projection isn’t just based on optimism. With rising geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, BigBear.ai’s data and defense capabilities are increasingly relevant. In that context, this guidance could reflect a real shift in demand, and investors may want to look ahead, not behind.

Knowing that, as Palantir has, BigBear.ai might receive a call from the United States government to develop new services and military artificial intelligence models in response to these conflicts, management had sufficient justification behind this confident and bold outlook.

Then there is the balance sheet aspect of this company, where up to $236.7 million worth of assets were assigned to intangible assets and goodwill; this represents a significant share of the entire company’s market capitalization and is something to keep in mind.

This figure is significant because it indicates that BigBear.ai’s technology is a key driver of the company's potential success moving forward, and the market is equally excited about this potential spillover effect.

Understanding these themes helps explain why Wall Street analysts have a consensus price target of up to $5.30 per share, calling for as much as 33.5% upside from where the stock trades today. Granted, BigBear.ai is a small company, and these targets may be a bit stale since analysts often don’t track smaller names as closely or update ratings as frequently.

But others in the market do. The Vanguard Group boosted its holdings by 9.2% as of early May 2025, building an $18.1 million position in BigBear.ai just before tensions in the Middle East began to escalate.

Now, the pieces of a bullish setup are falling into place. Whether BigBear.ai becomes the next Palantir is a question of time and execution, but right now, the signs are pointing in that direction.

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