Can Rivian Weather Falling Deliveries Amid Demand Uncertainty?

Rivian RIVN delivered 8,640 vehicles in the first quarter of 2025, down from the 13,588 units delivered during the same period in the previous year. This drop was primarily attributed to higher-than-usual deliveries of Electric Delivery Vans (“EDV”) in the fourth quarter of 2024, which led to reduced volumes in the first quarter of 2025.

The automaker produced 14,611 vehicles at its manufacturing facility in Normal, IL, in the first quarter, up from 13,980 vehicles produced in the same period last year. The company built more vehicles than it delivered in the first quarter to make up for lost production later this year, since the factory will shut down for about a month to prepare for the R2 production. Most of these extra vehicles are not affected by tariffs, so the company plans to sell them in the coming quarters.

Despite having sufficient in-hand inventory, Rivian's future deliveries are likely to be impacted by several external factors, including shifting government policies, macroeconomic conditions and trade-related supply-chain challenges. Elevated uncertainty around consumer sentiment, particularly regarding demand for high-priced vehicles, also clouds Rivian’s outlook. 

With an average selling price of $88,500 across its R1 models and commercial vans in the first quarter, Rivian’s premium product positioning inherently limits the addressable market, especially in the current economic climate. As a result of these challenges, Rivian revised its 2025 delivery guidance downward to a range of 40,000-46,000 vehicles compared with the earlier forecast of 46,000 to 51,000.

Q1 Deliveries of RIVN’s Competitors

In the first quarter of 2025, Tesla TSLA delivered 336,681 vehicles, comprising 323,800 Model 3/Y units and 12,881 from other models. Deliveries declined from 386,810 units reported in the year-ago quarter due to production pauses for Model Y retooling. Tesla plans to begin delivering the Model 3, Model Y and Cybertruck in Saudi Arabia later this year, which will be the Cybertruck’s first launch outside North America.

Lucid LCID delivered 3,109 vehicles in the first quarter of 2025, reflecting a rise of 58.1% compared with the same period in 2024. In April, Lucid introduced the Lucid Gravity, a full-size three-row SUV designed to combine practicality with high-end sophistication. The 2026 Lucid Gravity Grand Touring variant is priced starting at $94,900 and currently available for order. The Lucid Gravity Touring version, with a starting price of $79,900, is scheduled for release later in 2025.

Rivian’s Price Performance, Valuation and Estimates

Rivian has outperformed the Zacks Automotive-Domestic industry year to date. RIVN’s shares have gained 3.8% against the industry’s decline of 13.8%.

YTD Price Performance

From a valuation perspective, Rivian appears undervalued. Going by its price/sales ratio, the company is trading at a forward sales multiple of 2.42, down from the industry’s 2.78.

EPS Estimates Revision

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 and 2026 EPS has moved up 42 cents and 15 cents, respectively, in the past 60 days. 

Rivian currently carries a Zacks Rank  #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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