Can Cameco Deliver on Its Uranium Production Targets for 2025?

Cameco Corporation CCJ produced 6 million pounds of uranium (its share) in the first quarter of 2025, reflecting a 3% increase from the year-ago quarter. The company expects its share of production to reach 22.4 million pounds of uranium in 2025.

Cameco has two operating mines, Cigar Lake (in which it holds a 54.547% stake) and McArthur River (69.805%), along with a mill at Key Lake (83.33%). Cigar Lake is the world’s highest-grade uranium mine, while McArthur River is recognized as the largest high-grade uranium mine globally. Key Lake is also the world’s largest uranium mill.

In the first quarter, Cameco’s share of production from McArthur River and Key Lake was 3.2 million pounds. This was 9% lower than the year-ago quarter due to variations in the annual mine plans. 

A planned maintenance shutdown at the Key Lake mill was carried out in the second quarter, but no further shutdowns are expected at McArthur River this year. For 2025, total production at McArthur River and Key Lake is projected to be around 18 million pounds, with Cameco’s share estimated at 12.6 million pounds.

Production from Cigar Lake saw a 22% rise in the quarter, driven by improved mill asset availability. Cameco’s share was 2.8 million pounds from the mine compared with 2.3 million pounds in the first quarter of 2024. The site’s annual maintenance outage is planned for the third quarter, consistent with previous years. Cameco forecasts full-year production from Cigar Lake at up to 18 million pounds, with its share projected at 9.8 million pounds.

At Joint Venture (JV) Inkai, production activity was suspended by the majority owner and controlling partner, Kazatomprom, from Jan. 1, 2025. Production resumed on Jan. 23, 2025, and as a result, production was 1.1 million pounds (100% basis) for the quarter compared with 1.6 million pounds in the year-ago quarter. 

Despite the interruption, Cameco indicated that its 2025 guidance remains unchanged. JV Inkai has revised its mine plan and budget to reflect the temporary suspension and now aims to produce 8.3 million pounds this year (100% basis), with Cameco’s purchase allocation set at 3.7 million pounds.

In the first quarter of 2025, Energy Fuels UUUU mined approximately 12,000 tons of ore containing around 115,000 pounds of uranium. Factoring in additional output from processing alternate feed materials at its White Mesa Mill, Energy Fuels’ total uranium production reached 150,000 pounds for the quarter. 

The Pinyon Plain mine has been a standout performer for Energy Fuels, with production ramping up significantly in recent months. Energy Fuels recently reported that the Pinyon Plain mine produced 230,661 pounds of uranium in June, taking the second quarter’s production tally to 638,700 pounds. 

Ur Energy URG is currently operating the Lost Creek project in south-central Wyoming, which has an annual capacity of 1.2 million pounds. Ur Energy produced 83,066 pounds of uranium in the first quarter of 2025. Ur Energy recently received final approval for the expansion of Lost Creek. The company is also expanding operations at Shirley Basin, which will transform it into a two-mine operation. Shirley Basin has a licensed annual mine capacity of 1 million pounds.

CCJ’s Price Performance, Valuation & Estimates

In the past six months, Cameco shares have gained 37.8% compared with the industry’s 12.4% growth. Meanwhile, the broader Zacks Basic Materials sector has moved up 12.4%, while the S&P 500 has climbed 5.9%.

CCJ stock is trading at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 11.85 compared with the industry’s 1.24. It is above its five-year median of 6.53.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Cameco’s earnings for fiscal 2025 indicates year-over-year growth of 122.45%. The same for 2026 implies growth of 49%. 
The consensus estimate for Cameco’s earnings for fiscal 2025 has moved up over the past 60 days while the estimate for 2026 has moved down, as shown in the chart below.

The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). 

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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