Wall Street watches a company's quarterly report closely to understand as much as possible about its recent performance and what to expect going forward. Of course, one figure often stands out among the rest: earnings.
Life and the stock market are both about expectations, and rising above what is expected is often rewarded, while falling short can come with negative consequences. Investors might want to try to capture stronger returns by finding positive earnings surprises.
Hunting for 'earnings whispers' or companies poised to beat their quarterly earnings estimates is a somewhat common practice. But that doesn't make it easy. One way that has been proven to work is by using the Zacks Earnings ESP tool.
The Zacks Earnings ESP, Explained
The Zacks Earnings ESP, or Expected Surprise Prediction, aims to find earnings surprises by focusing on the most recent analyst revisions. The basic premise is that if an analyst reevaluates their earnings estimate ahead of an earnings release, it means they likely have new information that could possibly be more accurate.
Now that we understand the basic idea, let's look at how the Expected Surprise Prediction works. The ESP is calculated by comparing the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, with the percentage difference between the two giving us the Zacks ESP figure.
When we join a positive earnings ESP with a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or stronger, stocks posted a positive bottom-line surprise 70% of the time. Plus, this system saw investors produce roughly 28% annual returns on average, according to our 10 year backtest.
Stocks with a #3 (Hold) ranking, which is most stocks covered at 60%, are expected to perform in-line with the broader market. But stocks that fall into the #2 (Buy) and #1 (Strong Buy) ranking, or the top 15% and top 5% of stocks, respectively, should outperform the market. Strong Buy stocks should outperform more than any other rank.
Should You Consider Halozyme Therapeutics?
The last thing we will do today, now that we have a grasp on the ESP and how powerful of a tool it can be, is to quickly look at a qualifying stock. Halozyme Therapeutics (HALO) holds a #3 (Hold) at the moment and its Most Accurate Estimate comes in at $1.28 a share 14 days away from its upcoming earnings release on August 5, 2025.
Halozyme Therapeutics' Earnings ESP sits at +4.07%, which, as explained above, is calculated by taking the percentage difference between the $1.28 Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.23. HALO is also part of a large group of stocks that boast a positive ESP. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.
HALO is one of just a large database of Medical stocks with positive ESPs. Another solid-looking stock is Amgen (AMGN).
Amgen is a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) stock, and is getting ready to report earnings on August 5, 2025. AMGN's Most Accurate Estimate sits at $5.23 a share 14 days from its next earnings release.
Amgen's Earnings ESP figure currently stands at +0.07% after taking the percentage difference between its Most Accurate Estimate and its Zacks Consensus Estimate of $5.22.
HALO and AMGN's positive ESP metrics may signal that a positive earnings surprise for both stocks is on the horizon.
Find Stocks to Buy or Sell Before They're Reported
Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>
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Halozyme Therapeutics, Inc. (HALO): Free Stock Analysis Report Amgen Inc. (AMGN): Free Stock Analysis ReportThis article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
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