Is a Beat in Store for Cincinnati Financial This Earnings Season?

Cincinnati Financial Corporation CINF is expected to register an improvement in its top line but a decline in its bottom line when it reports second-quarter 2025  results on July 28, after the closing bell.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CINF’s second-quarter revenues is pegged at $2.9 billion, indicating 15.5% growth from the year-ago reported figure.

The consensus estimate for the bottom line is pegged at $1.37 per share. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CINF’s second-quarter earnings has moved north by 1 cent in the past seven days. The estimate suggests a year-over-year increase of 6.2%.

What the Zacks Model Unveils for CINF

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for CINF this time around. This is because the stock has the right combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold) that increases the chances of an earnings beat. 

You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Earnings ESP: CINF has an Earnings ESP of +3.65%. This is because the Most Accurate Estimate of $1.42 per share is pegged higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.37.

Cincinnati Financial Corporation Price and EPS Surprise

Cincinnati Financial Corporation price-eps-surprise | Cincinnati Financial Corporation Quote

Zacks Rank: CINF carries a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Factors Likely to Shape CINF’s Q2 Results

Increased exposure, better pricing, increased property casualty agency and new business written premiums, higher standard lines new business, and improved premiums from Cincinnati Re are likely to have favored premiums. We expect earned premiums to be $2.5 billion, up 15.2% from the year-ago reported figure. The Zacks Consensus Estimate is also pegged at $2.4 billion.

Rate increases, a higher level of insured exposures, higher policy retention rates and changes in policy deductibles or mix of business are expected to have favored performance at Personal Lines. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Personal Lines revenues is pegged at $794 million.

Excess and Surplus lines premiums are expected to have gained from improved agency renewal and new business written premiums due to higher renewal pricing. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Excess and Surplus lines revenues is pegged at $172 million. 

Continued strong cash flow from operating activities and higher bond yields are likely to have aided net investment income. We expect investment income to be $269.6 million, up 11.4% from the year-ago reported quarter.  The Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged at $294 million.

Total benefits and expenses are likely to have increased mainly due to higher insurance losses and contract holders' benefits, underwriting, acquisition and insurance expenses, interest expense, and other operating expenses. We expect total expenses to rise 14.3% to $2.5 billion.

A benign catastrophe environment is likely to have aided underwriting profitability. We estimate the combined ratio to be 97.3, an improvement of 120 basis points year over year. 

Other Stocks to Consider

Here are three P&C insurance stocks that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat:

Root Inc. ROOT has an Earnings ESP of +58.28% and a Zacks Rank #1 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter 2025 earnings is pegged at $1.06, indicating a year-over-year increase of 303.9%

ROOT’s earnings beat estimates in each of the last four reported quarters.

Palomar Holdings PLMR has an Earnings ESP of +0.25% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter 2025 earnings is pegged at $1.68, indicating a year-over-year increase of 34.4%.

PLMR’s earnings beat estimates in each of the last four reported quarters.

Skyward Specialty SKWD has an Earnings ESP of +2.51% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter 2025 earnings is pegged at 86 cents, indicating a year-over-year increase of 7.5%.

SKWD’s earnings beat estimates in each of the last four reported quarters.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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