Global Payments Inc. (GPN): A Bull Case Theory

We came across a bullish thesis on Global Payments Inc. on Bob’s Payment Stock’s Substack by Bob Hammel. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on GPN. Global Payments Inc.'s share was trading at $82.66 as of July 16^th. GPN’s trailing and forward P/E were 12.56 and 6.45, respectively according to Yahoo Finance.

Global Payments' proposed combination with Worldpay could create a powerful merchant acquiring platform with global scale, diversified channels, and broad technological reach. The new Global Payments would benefit from significant exposure to attractive segments such as integrated payments, software, and e-commerce, which together would represent roughly two-thirds of revenue.

Organic growth for the combined company is conservatively projected at 6%, with contributions from eCommerce (10%), POS & Software (8%), Integrated & Embedded (6%), and Core Payments (4%). However, investor sentiment remains cautious. Both Global Payments and Worldpay have undergone substantial strategic changes in recent years—acquiring, divesting, and restructuring large parts of their portfolios.

Concerns persist that integration may stall operational momentum or that the model itself, particularly around integrated payments, could face disruption as software firms increasingly embed payments natively. Nonetheless, the setup offers asymmetric upside. The company trades at just 6x 2025E EPS, with the market seemingly pricing in ongoing deterioration. Any stabilization or modest success post-merger could drive meaningful rerating.

Worldpay brings a large, under-monetized eCommerce platform (now 35% of its mix), while GPN contributes a robust merchant base and deep experience in integrated software, including the Genius platform for unified PoS. Historical M&A footprints—over 17 major acquisitions since 2010—suggest the company has both appetite and experience in complex integrations.

A streamlined structure, renewed focus on profitable growth areas, and potential for multiple re-expansion make the combined entity an intriguing contrarian bet. While execution risk is high, the valuation discount offers investors a compelling risk/reward skew, especially if synergy realization meets expectations.

Previously, we covered a bullish thesis on Global Payments Inc. (GPN) by Excelsior Capital in November 2024, which highlighted the company’s strong cash flow, consistent earnings growth, and attractive valuation. The company's stock price has depreciated approximately 29% since our coverage. This is because the thesis didn’t play out amid integration concerns. Excelsior Capital shares a similar view but emphasizes upside from the Worldpay merger and potential rerating.

Global Payments Inc. is not on our list of the 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 65 hedge fund portfolios held GPN at the end of the first quarter which was 71 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the potential of GPN as an investment, we believe certain AI stocks offer greater upside potential and carry less downside risk. If you're looking for an extremely undervalued AI stock that also stands to benefit significantly from Trump-era tariffs and the onshoring trend, see our free report on the best short-term AI stock.

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Disclosure: None.