Modine Gears Up to Report Q1 Earnings: Here's What to Expect

Modine Manufacturing Company MOD is slated to release first-quarter fiscal 2026 results on July 30, after the closing bell. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter’s earnings per share (EPS) and revenues is pegged at 93 cents and $651.12 million, respectively.

For the fiscal first quarter, the consensus estimate for Modine’s earnings has moved down 2 cents in the past seven days. Its bottom-line estimates imply a 10.58% decline from the year-ago reported numbers. 

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MOD's quarterly revenues implies a year-over-year decline of 1.57%. The company's earnings beat estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, delivering an average surprise of 14.90%. This is depicted in the graph below:

Modine Manufacturing Company Price and EPS Surprise

Modine Manufacturing Company price-eps-surprise | Modine Manufacturing Company Quote

Highlights of MOD’s Q4 Results

In the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025, MOD’s adjusted EPS of $1.12 beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 95 cents and increased from 77 cents reported in the year-ago quarter. The company reported net sales of $647 million, which topped the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $625 million. The top line also rose from $604 million reported in the year-ago quarter.

Things to Note Ahead of MOD’s Q1 Release

MOD expects net revenues in fiscal 2026 to increase 2-10% year over year. For the Climate Solutions segment, full-year sales are projected to increase 12% to 20%, primarily driven by strong expectations for the data center and commercial indoor air quality product group. The company maintains a highly optimistic outlook for data centers specifically, anticipating revenue growth of more than 30% year over year for the full year. 

It expects adjusted EBITDA for fiscal 2026 to increase in the range of $420-$450 million compared with $392.1 million reported in fiscal 2025. An expected growth in sales and adjusted EBITDA for fiscal 2026 is likely to have bolstered the company’s performance in the to-be-reported quarter. 

On the flip side, the company anticipates that Performance Technologies sales for fiscal 2026 will decline 2% to 12% year over year, reflecting expectations of continued weakness in end markets and potential negative effects from the ongoing trade conflict on market recovery. An anticipated decline in Performance Technologies sales is likely to have somewhat offset the company’s top-line growth in the fiscal first quarter.

In fiscal 2025, SG&A expense as a percent of sales increased to 12.8% from 11.3% in fiscal 2024. Amid high incentive compensation expenses, the SG&A expenses are expected to remain elevated in the to-be-reported quarter. Higher expected expenses are likely to have hurt the company’s margin performance in the fiscal first quarter.

Earnings Whispers for MOD

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Modine for the quarter to be reported, as it does not have the right combination of the two key ingredients. A positive Earnings ESP, combined with a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold), increases the odds of an earnings beat. This is not the case here.

MOD’s Earnings ESP: MOD has an Earnings ESP of -4.30%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank of MOD: It currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.

Stocks With the Favorable Combination

Here are some players from the auto space that, per our model, have the correct ingredients to post an earnings beat this time around.

Lucid Group, Inc. LCID has an Earnings ESP of +3.08% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. The company is set to release second-quarter 2025 results on Aug. 5. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for LCID’s to-be-reported quarter’s loss per share and revenues is pegged at 22 cents and $253.43 million, respectively. Lucid’s earnings beat estimates in one of the trailing four quarters and missed thrice, the average negative surprise being 6.13%.

Cummins Inc. CMI has an Earnings ESP of +2.79% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. The company is set to release second-quarter 2025 results on Aug. 5. 

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CMI’s to-be-reported quarter’s earnings and revenues is pegged at $4.99 per share and $8.47 billion, respectively. CMI’s earnings beat estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 14.22%.

Rivian Automotive, Inc. RIVN has an Earnings ESP of +8.53% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. The company is set to release second-quarter 2025 results on Aug. 5. 

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for RIVN’s to-be-reported quarter’s loss and revenues is pegged at 65 cents per share and $1.26 billion, respectively. RIVN’s earnings beat estimates in two of the trailing four quarters and missed twice, the average surprise being 10.81%.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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