U-Haul (UHAL): Buy, Sell, or Hold Post Q1 Earnings?

Over the past six months, U-Haul’s shares (currently trading at $61.85) have posted a disappointing 16.2% loss, well below the S&P 500’s 5% gain. This may have investors wondering how to approach the situation.

Is now the time to buy U-Haul, or should you be careful about including it in your portfolio? Dive into our full research report to see our analyst team’s opinion, it’s free.

Why Do We Think U-Haul Will Underperform?

Even though the stock has become cheaper, we're swiping left on U-Haul for now. Here are three reasons why you should be careful with UHAL and a stock we'd rather own.

1. Revenue Growth Flatlining

Long-term growth is the most important, but within industrials, a stretched historical view may miss new industry trends or demand cycles. U-Haul’s recent performance shows its demand has slowed as its revenue was flat over the last two years. We also note many other Ground Transportation businesses have faced declining sales because of cyclical headwinds. While U-Haul’s growth wasn’t the best, it did do better than its peers.

2. Free Cash Flow Margin Dropping

If you’ve followed StockStory for a while, you know we emphasize free cash flow. Why, you ask? We believe that in the end, cash is king, and you can’t use accounting profits to pay the bills.

As you can see below, U-Haul’s margin dropped by 36.3 percentage points over the last five years. Almost any movement in the wrong direction is undesirable because it is already burning cash. If the trend continues, it could signal it’s becoming a more capital-intensive business. U-Haul’s free cash flow margin for the trailing 12 months was negative 34.3%.

3. New Investments Fail to Bear Fruit as ROIC Declines

ROIC, or return on invested capital, is a metric showing how much operating profit a company generates relative to the money it has raised (debt and equity).

We like to invest in businesses with high returns, but the trend in a company’s ROIC is what often surprises the market and moves the stock price. Unfortunately, U-Haul’s ROIC has decreased over the last few years. Paired with its already low returns, these declines suggest its profitable growth opportunities are few and far between.

Final Judgment

U-Haul falls short of our quality standards. After the recent drawdown, the stock trades at $61.85 per share (or a trailing 12-month price-to-sales ratio of 2.1×). The market typically values companies like U-Haul based on their anticipated profits for the next 12 months, but there aren’t enough published estimates to arrive at a reliable number. You should avoid this stock for now - better opportunities lie elsewhere. Let us point you toward one of our all-time favorite software stocks.

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