Aflac Gears Up for Q2 Earnings: Ready to Quack or Set to Crack?

Insurance provider Aflac Incorporated AFL is set to report its second-quarter 2025 results on Aug. 5, 2025, after the closing bell. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter’s earnings is currently pegged at $1.71 per shareon revenues of $4.43 billion.

The second-quarter earnings estimate declined by 2 cents over the past 60 days. The bottom-line projection indicates a year-over-year decline of 6.6%. Also, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues suggests a year-over-year decrease of 13.7%.

For full-year 2025, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Aflac’s revenues is pegged at $17.68 billion, implying a fall of 0.9% year over year. Also, the consensus mark for 2025 EPS is pegged at $6.75, implying a 6.4% year-over-year decline.

Aflac beat earnings estimates in two of the past four quarters and missed twice, with the average surprise being 9.3%. This is depicted in the figure below.

Aflac Incorporated Price and EPS Surprise

Aflac Incorporated price-eps-surprise | Aflac Incorporated Quote

Q2 Earnings Whispers for Aflac

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for the company this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That’s not the case here.

AFL has an Earnings ESP of -1.25% and a Zacks Rank #2. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

What’s Shaping Aflac’s Q2 Results?

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter total net earned premiums indicates a 3.4% year-over-year increase. While the consensus mark signals a 3.3% increase in total adjusted revenues in the Aflac U.S. unit, due to higher premiums, the same for the Aflac Japan unit predicts a 2.6% fall from the year-ago quarter.

The consensus mark for net investment income predicts a 17.2% decline from the year-ago period. Total benefit to premium ratio in Aflac U.S. is pegged at 47.8, up from 46.7 a year ago. Yet, the same for Aflac Japan stands at 65.3, down from 66.9 in the year-ago period.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for pre-tax adjusted earnings from Aflac U.S. indicates an 8.1% year-over-year fall. Similarly, Aflac Japan is likely to have witnessed a 13.2% decline in pre-tax adjusted earnings.

The factors stated above are likely to have positioned Aflac for year-over-year declines, making an earnings beat uncertain. The negatives are likely to have been partly offset by significantly improved pre-tax adjusted earnings figures from Corporate and other.

How Did Aflac’s Peers Perform?

Several insurance companies, including Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. MMC, Aon plc AON and AMERISAFE, Inc. AMSF, have already reported their financial results for the June quarter of 2025. Here’s how they had performed:

Marsh & McLennan reported second-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings per share of $2.72, which surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 2.3%, aided by strong growth in Risk and Insurance Services, particularly from the Marsh and Guy Carpenter businesses. However, the upside was partly offset by Marsh & McLennan’s elevated operating expenses, primarily due to increased compensation and benefits.

AON reported second-quarter adjusted earnings of $3.49 per share, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 2.7%, benefiting from new business growth and solid retention rates in its solution lines. AON’s Risk Capital and Human Capital segments gained from organic revenue growth, NFP acquisition synergies and net restructuring savings. However, the upside was partially offset by escalating operating costs.

AMERISAFE reported second-quarter adjusted earnings per share of 53 cents, which missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 3.6%, affected by a drop in net investment income, softer underwriting results and elevated expense levels. AMSF’s strong retention rates and new business growth partially offset the negatives.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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