Bumble Inc. (BMBL): A Bull Case Theory

We came across a bullish thesis on Bumble Inc. Valueinvesting subreddit by HaywardUCuddleme. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on BMBL. Bumble Inc.'s share was trading at $7.63 as of July 29^th. BMBL’s trailing and forward P/E were 18.79 and 11.74 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.

Bumble Inc. (BMBL), trading at $6.82 with a market cap of $703.9 million, operates a portfolio of freemium dating and social networking apps, including Bumble, Badoo, Fruitz, and Geneva, with a highly scalable, asset-light model. The company’s dating segment generates 75% of revenues, with friendship and community apps contributing the balance, and enjoys strong network effects, mid-teens top-line growth potential, and rising ARPU across its 53% North American, 30% EMEA, and 17% Rest of World footprint.

The market currently discounts BMBL due to consensus assumptions of 9% revenue growth, 13.5% net margins, and a 0.49 sales-to-equity ratio, well below management’s execution and historical trends. Bumble’s Q1 2025 performance already saw 11% user growth and 8% ARPU expansion, and new AI-driven matching and Geneva community features should push revenue growth toward 12%, with 18% net margins as automation, scale, and an exit from low-margin lines drive operating leverage.

Management’s $450 million buyback capacity, including a potential $200 million accelerated repurchase in Q3 2025, will reduce equity and lift the sales-to-equity ratio to 0.65, a material rerating catalyst. Upcoming catalysts include Q2 results on August 6th that could beat top-line expectations, a Q3 margin print above 18% on November 5th, validating structural profitability, and capital return announcements that underscore efficiency, each with potential to trigger 30–60% share price gains.

A DCF-derived base-case valuation of $15.15 implies 122% upside, supported by high free cash flow, moderate leverage, and a proven freemium model. Even in a downside case, valuation downside appears limited, offering an attractive risk/reward skew with multiple near-term triggers.

Previously, we covered a bullish thesis on Bumble Inc. (BMBL) by @catapultcap in May 2025, highlighting industry MAUs bottoming, Bumble’s share gains over Tinder, and its undervaluation under 7x unlevered earnings. The stock has appreciated about 33% since MAUs stabilized. The thesis still stands on long-term growth.  HaywardUCuddleme shares a similar view but stresses near-term catalysts and capital efficiency.

Bumble Inc. is not on our list of the 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 31 hedge fund portfolios held BMBL at the end of the first quarter which was 33 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the potential of BMBL as an investment, we believe certain AI stocks offer greater upside potential and carry less downside risk. If you're looking for an extremely undervalued AI stock that also stands to benefit significantly from Trump-era tariffs and the onshoring trend, see our free report on the best short-term AI stock.

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Disclosure: None.