Shift4 Payments, Inc. (FOUR): A Bull Case Theory

We came across a bullish thesis on Shift4 Payments, Inc. on The Reservist’s Substack by Yehoshua Zlotogorski. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on FOUR. Shift4 Payments, Inc.'s share was trading at $101.94 as of August 1^st. FOUR’s trailing and forward P/E were 34.91 and 18.80 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.

Shift4 (FOUR) is a payment processor with a strong history dating back to the 1990s and a proven track record of execution and growth. The company operates primarily in the restaurant and hospitality sector, competing at the high end with players like Toast and Clover, while also targeting venues and sports stadiums. In addition, Shift4 is pursuing a unified commerce strategy similar to Adyen and expanding aggressively into emerging global markets. Its upcoming acquisition of Global Blue is expected to deliver significant synergies and new market access, although the deal is slated to close in early 2026, making it a longer-term catalyst.

The investment will be a small “invest and investigate” position, allowing time to evaluate management’s execution over the next two years. The company’s strengths include its disciplined approach to growth through targeted M&A and its ability to execute quickly, positioning it as one of the leading players in its segments. Management has delivered strong performance over the past four years as a public company, and valuation remains compelling, with the stock trading at roughly one-third of Toast’s market cap.

However, there are notable risks. Shift4 carries a high debt load, which increased following its financing for the Global Blue acquisition and could weigh on the company during a downturn. The reliance on adjusted EBITDA also raises concerns about transparency. Additionally, competing directly with Toast—considered the category leader—poses challenges. Despite these risks, secular tailwinds in digital payments and hospitality technology, combined with Shift4’s proven execution and expansion strategy, create an attractive, albeit cautious, long-term opportunity.

Previously we covered a bullish thesis on Shift4 Payments, Inc. (FOUR) by Next 100 Baggers in May 2025, which highlighted strong Q1 results, M&A synergies, and improved governance after the CEO transition. The stock has appreciated about 22% since then as growth drivers continued to play out. Yehoshua Zlotogorski shares a similar view but emphasizes risks from high leverage, competition, and adjusted EBITDA reliance.

Shift4 Payments, Inc. is not on our list of the 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 40 hedge fund portfolios held FOUR at the end of the first quarter which was 38 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the potential of FOUR as an investment, we believe certain AI stocks offer greater upside potential and carry less downside risk. If you're looking for an extremely undervalued AI stock that also stands to benefit significantly from Trump-era tariffs and the onshoring trend, see our free report on the best short-term AI stock.

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Disclosure: None.