Nutrien's Q2 Earnings Beat Estimates on Record Potash Volumes

Nutrien Ltd. NTR recorded profits of $1,229 million or $2.50 per share for second-quarter 2025, up from $392 million or 78 cents in the year-ago quarter.

Barring one-time items, adjusted earnings per share were $2.65. The bottom line beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.40.

Sales rose around 2.8% year over year to $10,438 million in the quarter. The figure missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $10,610.1 million.

NTR’s Segment Highlights

Sales in the Nutrien Ag Solutions (Retail) segment declined 1% year over year to $7,959 million in the quarter. In the second quarter, crop nutrient sales and gross margin rose, driven by higher sales volumes and selling prices in North America, though this was partly offset by reduced sales volumes in Australia due to hot, dry weather conditions. The figure missed our estimate of $8,591.6 million.

The Potash division reported a 31% year-over-year sales rise, totaling $991 million. The metric beat our estimate of $677.8 million. Second-quarter and first-half 2025 sales volumes reached record highs, driven by favorable potash affordability and robust consumption in North America and major offshore markets.

The Nitrogen segment posted sales of $1,260 million, up approximately 23% year over year. The figure topped our estimate of $996.5 million. In the second quarter and first half of 2025, sales volumes rose, supported by strong demand and higher production of ammonia and upgraded nitrogen products.

The Phosphate segment generated sales of $396 million, up around 1% year over year. This figure exceeded our estimate of $362.9 million. Lower production volumes in the first quarter led to reduced sales volumes in the second quarter and the first half of 2025.

NTR’s Financials

At the end of the quarter, NTR had cash and cash equivalents of $1,387 million, up around 38% year over year. Long-term debt was $10,405 million, up nearly 10.7% year over year.

Cash provided by operating activities was $2,538 million in the reported quarter.

NTR’s Guidance

The company projects retail adjusted EBITDA of $1.65 to $1.85 billion for 2025, reflecting expectations for stronger North American crop nutrient and crop protection sales in the second half compared to 2024, better moisture conditions in Australia and continued recovery in Brazil. 

Potash sales volume guidance has been raised to 13.9–14.5 million tons, in line with historical market share, driven by anticipated higher global demand. Nitrogen sales volumes are forecast at 10.7–11.2 million tons, factoring in lower ammonia operating rates in the second half due to planned turnarounds at North American plants, following record rates in the first half. 

Phosphate sales volumes are expected at 2.35–2.55 million tons, supported by improved operating rates and sales following the completion of first-half turnarounds. 

Capital expenditures are projected at $2–$2.1 billion, below last year’s level, including $400–$500 million in growth investments targeting proprietary products, network optimization, digital capabilities, nitrogen brownfield expansions and potash mine automation. The effective tax rate on adjusted net earnings has been revised upward to 24–26%, reflecting changes in the expected geographic mix of earnings.

NTR’s Price Performance

Nutrien’s shares have gained 22.2% in the past year compared with a 15.6% rise of the industry.

NTR’s Zacks Rank & Key Picks

NTR currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).

Better-ranked stocks worth a look in the basic materials space include Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd. ASM, Gold Fields Limited GFI and Vizsla Silver Corp. VZLA.

Avino Silver is slated to report second-quarter results on Aug. 13. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pegged at 3 cents per share. ASM’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the last four quarters, with the average surprise being 104.2%. Avino Silver flaunts a Zacks Rank #1 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Gold Fields is slated to report second-quarter results on Aug. 22. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for GFI’s second-quarter earnings is pegged at 59 cents per share. Gold Fields currently sports a Zacks Rank #1.

Vizsla is expected to report quarterly results on Sept. 11. The consensus estimate for VZLA’s earnings is pegged at a loss of a penny per share. VZLA’s earnings met the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the last four quarters while beating it in one, with the average surprise being 75%. Vizsla sports a Zacks Rank #1 at present.

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