MoonLake Immunotherapeutics (MLTX): A Bull Case Theory

We came across a bullish thesis on MoonLake Immunotherapeutics on Valueinvestorsclub.com by skimmer610. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on MLTX. MoonLake Immunotherapeutics's share was trading at $51.89 as of August 7^th.

MoonLake Immunotherapeutics (MLTX) represents a high-upside, asymmetric biotech opportunity ahead of its critical September 2025 Phase 3 readout (VELA) in hidradenitis suppurativa (HS). The company’s lead asset, sonelokimab—a tri-specific nanobody that blocks IL-17A/F and binds albumin—has shown best-in-class Phase 2 efficacy in HS and psoriatic arthritis (PsA), with key advantages in potency, safety, and tissue penetration.

Backed by ~$480M in cash and a non-dilutive $500M credit facility, MLTX has a clean balance sheet with no need for near-term funding. The company’s modest ~$2.5B enterprise value offers substantial upside should VELA succeed, with peak HS sales estimates of $1.5–2.0B and an additional $1–2B optionality from PsA and other indications. Notably, sonelokimab demonstrated a 29-point HiSCR-75 delta over placebo in HS and beat Humira in multiple PsA metrics. Its safety profile is clean, avoiding the class-wide issues seen with brodalumab and Bimzelx. MoonLake's strategic focus on IL-17-driven diseases resistant to TNF inhibitors, combined with a well-patented and hard-to-replicate nanobody platform, creates meaningful barriers to entry.

With full Phase 3 enrollment already completed and a Data Safety Monitoring Board update expected in Q3 2025, investors face a clear near-term catalyst path. If successful, MLTX could be an M&A target, with Merck previously showing interest. Even in the base case of HS success alone, the company could trade 3–5x higher. Downside risk is meaningful if VELA disappoints, but strong Phase 2 data, a robust manufacturing platform, and a focused pipeline mitigate concerns. MLTX offers a compelling risk/reward with transformative upside potential.

Previously, we covered a bullish thesis on Bio-Techne Corporation (TECH) by scuttleblurb in May 2025, which highlighted the company’s expansion from legacy protein products into CGT, diagnostics, and proteomics. The company's stock price has appreciated by approximately 10% since our coverage. This is because organic growth and instrument sales rebounded. skimmer610 shares a distinct but emphasizes MoonLake’s focused, binary biotech catalyst and asymmetric upside ahead of its HS readout.

MoonLake Immunotherapeutics is not on our list of the 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 38 hedge fund portfolios held MLTX at the end of the first quarter which was 32 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the potential of MLTX as an investment, we believe certain AI stocks offer greater upside potential and carry less downside risk. If you're looking for an extremely undervalued AI stock that also stands to benefit significantly from Trump-era tariffs and the onshoring trend, see our free report on the best short-term AI stock.

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Disclosure: None.