Arch Capital Trades Above 50-Day SMA: How to Play the Stock?

Arch Capital Group Ltd. ACGL has been trading above its 50-day simple moving average (SMA), signaling a short-term bullish trend. Its share price as of Friday was $90.72, down 22.1% from its 52-week high of $116.47.

The 50-day SMA is a key indicator for traders and analysts to identify support and resistance levels. It is considered particularly important as this is the first marker of an uptrend or downtrend.

ACGL’s Price Performance

Shares of Arch Capital have lost 1.7 % in the year-to-date period, underperforming its industry, the sector, and the Zacks S&P 500 Composite’s growth of 5.1%, 10.8% and 9.6%, respectively, in the same time frame.

The insurer has a market capitalization of $33.9 billion. The average volume of shares traded in the last three months was 2.2 million.

ACGL vs Industry, Sector & S&P 500 YTD

ACGL Shares Are Expensive

Arch Capitalshares are trading at a premium compared to the Zacks Property and Casualty Insurance industry. Its forward price-to-book value of 1.53X is higher than the industry average of 1.45X. The insurer has a Value Score of B.

However, shares of NMI Holdings Inc. NMIH, CNA Financial Corporation CNA are trading at a multiple lower than the industry average, while The Allstate Corporation ALL shares are trading at a premium.

Projections for ACGL

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 revenues is pegged at $18.8 billion, implying a year-over-year improvement of 13.6%. The consensus estimate for Arch Capital’s current-year earnings is pegged at $8.12 per share, down 12.5% from the year-ago reported figure.

Average Target Price for ACGL Suggests Upside

Based on short-term price targets offered by 17 analysts, the Zacks average price target is $107.71 per share. The average indicates a potential 17.8% upside from the last closing price.

Key Points to Note for ACGL

Arch Capital has maintained strong premium momentum, with net premiums written growing at a 12.9% CAGR from 2018 to 2024. Hard market rates, inflation-driven demand, and disciplined underwriting have fueled growth across P&C lines. In second-quarter 2025, ACGL’s net premiums written rose 15% year over year to $4.3 billion.

Arch Capital is well-positioned in the P&C insurance market, benefiting from a hard market environment that is characterized by rising premiums and increased demand for insurance coverage

Arch had 67% of its investments invested in fixed maturities as on 2024 end with short-term investments, equity securities and other investments accounting for the remaining.  The company believes that its growing investment portfolio keeps providing meaningful tailwinds to its bottom line.

Arch Capital is bolstering its competitive position through acquisitions and targeted investments. The addition of MidCorp and Entertainment insurance businesses strengthens its U.S. middle-market scale while diversifying the portfolio. Investments in local market-focused teams sharpen marketing and growth execution. In Europe, Arch Capital expanded its platform with the launch of Arch Insurance Company (Europe) Limited in London. 

The Russia-Ukraine conflict is weighing on ACGL’s operations, with sanctions on Russian oil, gas, and other goods directly impacting its marine and energy business lines. Ongoing geopolitical instability also exposes ACGL to unanticipated losses, which could materially pressure its financial results.

Arch Capital’s leverage and times-interest-earned ratios compare favorably with industry averages. However, while capital investment has been rising, return on invested capital has declined in recent quarters. Its trailing 12-month ROIC stands at 5.2%, below the industry average of 5.9%, highlighting inefficiencies in managing shareholders’ funds.

Conclusion

Overall, Arch Capital demonstrates solid fundamentals with consistent premium growth and strategic expansion across markets. However, elevated geopolitical risks, declining returns on invested capital, and a valuation premium temper the near-term outlook.

Ongoing headwinds limit meaningful upside for Arch Capital. It is therefore wise to adopt a wait-and-see approach on this Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) stock. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

Zacks Investment Research