Palantir is Selling Off, BigBear.ai Could Be Your Hedge

One of the most popular stocks in the defense and aerospace sector has now taken a knee, falling by a significant amount over the past few days. Investors who saw big gains in this name are now likely to react in the worst way, which is emotionally and blindly buying the dip on this name, hoping it will return to the levels it was at just a couple of days ago.

This name is Palantir Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ: PLTR), a prominent figure and the shining star in most portfolios since it gained popularity over the past couple of years. However, even after beating recent earnings expectations, the stock has sold off by roughly 12.3% in a single week, a reaction that can be credited to increasing chances of conflicts being resolved worldwide.

More importantly than peace is the fact that the stock shot up so much that any and all future earnings per share (EPS) growth has now been more than priced in, creating a vacuum of downside to bring Palantir back to its “fair price”.

On the other hand, a peer called BigBear.ai Holdings Inc. (NYSE: BBAI) provides just the opposite setup for the coming months, acting as a perfect hedge.

Why Palantir Could Keep Selling Off

The days of easy money and low interest rates of COVID-19 are over, and the weight fundamentals play on the market. Its behavior is increasing by the day, meaning investors now have to understand the relationship between today’s prices and their connections to where the market expects the true fundamentals to be in the coming quarters.

That means looking at one often forgotten valuation multiple called the price-to-earnings-growth (PEG) ratio, which attempts to gauge whether future earnings growth is now priced into the stock. Any multiple above 1.0x means that all future EPS growth has already been priced into the stock.

Unless there is an extraordinary story or a chance of sustaining a decade-long monopoly sort of moat, any PEG above 1.0x eventually is corrected back to “fair value”, and by trading at an 8.3x PEG ratio today, Palantir leaves investors with some of the most dangerous overvaluation setups in the entire stock market today.

That being said, whether Palantir continues to sell off depends on time and whether the markets start to care about fundamentals (not popularity) once again. This is also a sign of a much broader cycle where investors should probably rebalance their portfolios accordingly.

A Perfect Hedge in BigBear.ai Stock

This is a more obscure way to look at the company’s valuation through BigBear.ai, considering that the stock has no EPS to report, only net losses. Investors need to look to other gauges to determine whether the massive performance gap between this name and Palantir can be closed.

One good place to start is price action. While Palantir sold off by 12.3% in a single week, BigBear.ai (the inherently more volatile name) only sold off by 8% during the same period, and has outperformed Palantir over the past 12 months through a massive 323.6% rally.

Moreover, the $ 5 per share level has now been established as a strong support for this company, given that it sold down to this level after reporting earnings and then saw bidders emerge, attempting to bring it back to higher levels.

That being said, investors also need to consider another fundamental factor. The key factor is that BigBear.ai has very similar technology to Palantir, meaning the primary differentiator between the two may be their popularity in the investment community, which can be an advantage.

Since not many people are familiar with BigBear.ai, the industry underdog, customers may be able to negotiate better pricing for the company’s services compared to Palantir’s premium positioning, making it a more attractive choice. This could be why the market hasn’t punished BigBear.ai as much as Palantir despite having a higher beta reading.

Furthermore, some institutions, such as Nikko Asset Management Americas, decided to step away from Palantir as of mid-August 2025. This group decreased its holdings in Palantir by 29.2%, potentially signaling capitulation due to the company's overextended valuation.

On the other hand, BigBear.ai was able to attract new buyers. Those from Jump Financial saw it fit to initiate a $37.4 million stake in the stock immediately after it declined on that earnings announcement, indicating that these savvy allocators see the potential upside gap to be filled compared to Palantir and how all the fundamental factors are set up for its success.

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The article "Palantir is Selling Off, BigBear.ai Could Be Your Hedge" first appeared on MarketBeat.