SPS Commerce, Inc. (SPSC): A Bull Case Theory

We came across a bullish thesis on SPS Commerce, Inc. on Business Invest’s Substack by Francesco Ferrari. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on SPSC. SPS Commerce, Inc.'s share was trading at $111.44 as of August 20^th. SPSC’s trailing P/E were 52.24 according to Yahoo Finance.

SPS Commerce (SPSC) is a cloud-based software company serving the logistics and retail ecosystem, connecting retailers, suppliers, and logistics providers through its platform. The company provides an integrated solution for order processing, invoicing, and inventory management, streamlining operations across the supply chain. SPSC has demonstrated solid historical growth, with a three-year revenue CAGR of 19.2%, though investors’ desired growth rate stands at 24.4%. Based on a reverse DCF analysis, the stock price at $90.43—approximately 19.3% below current levels—aligns the company’s implied growth rate with its historical trajectory, prompting closer examination from investors.

This indicates that, assuming all other factors remain constant, the market is already pricing in more conservative revenue growth, reducing downside risk while highlighting the need for careful monitoring of growth execution. The platform’s central role in connecting multiple participants in the logistics and retail network underscores SPSC’s strategic importance, while its all-in-one capabilities support long-term retention and stickiness among clients. The combination of solid historical growth, strong market positioning, and a stock price reflecting realistic revenue expectations presents a nuanced investment opportunity.

While the company is not dramatically undervalued, the current levels provide a chance to evaluate risk-adjusted upside, especially if future revenue growth accelerates toward the desired 24% CAGR. Overall, SPSC offers a resilient business model with structural advantages in logistics software, and the recent stock price adjustment serves as a signal for investors to investigate whether the market is underestimating its long-term potential.

Previously we covered a bullish thesis on Paylocity Holding Corporation (PCTY) by Francesco Ferrari in April 2025, which highlighted the company’s strong long-term growth, low volatility, and impressive revenue and gross profit CAGRs. The company's stock price has depreciated approximately by 1.47% since our coverage, reflecting minor market fluctuations. Francesco Ferrari shares a similar approach in his thesis on SPS Commerce, Inc. (SPSC) but emphasizes SPSC’s cloud-based logistics platform and revenue growth dynamics.

SPS Commerce, Inc. is not on our list of the 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 31 hedge fund portfolios held SPSC at the end of the first quarter which was 29 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the potential of SPSC as an investment, we believe certain AI stocks offer greater upside potential and carry less downside risk. If you're looking for an extremely undervalued AI stock that also stands to benefit significantly from Trump-era tariffs and the onshoring trend, see our free report on the best short-term AI stock.

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Disclosure: None.