Methanex (MEOH) Up 6.8% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Continue?

A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Methanex (MEOH). Shares have added about 6.8% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

But investors have to be wondering, will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Methanex due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

Methanex's Q2 Earnings Surpass Estimates, Revenues Decline Y/Y

Methanex reported a second-quarter 2025 profit (attributable to shareholders) of $64 million or 93 cents per share, up from $35 million or 52 cents per share in the year-ago quarter.

Adjusted earnings per share (barring one-time items) in the reported quarter were 97 cents per share, topping the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 42 cents.

Revenues fell roughly 13.4% year over year to $797 million in the quarter. The top line missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $873.9 million.

Adjusted EBITDA in the reported quarter rose around 11.6% year over year to $183 million. 

Operational Highlights

Production in the quarter totaled 1,621,000 tons, up 14% year over year. Production also increased from the prior quarter due to higher production from Geismar as Geismar 1 and 2 operated at full rates in this quarter, and a successful Geismar 3 restart was achieved in early May, as well as increased production in Trinidad. This was offset by reduced production from Egypt due to gas availability, Canada’s planned turnaround and lower production from Chile and New Zealand.

Total sales volume in the first quarter totaled 2,133,000 tons, down 18.3% year over year. The figure missed our estimate of 2,387,000 tons.

The average realized price for methanol was $374 per ton in the quarter, up from $352 per ton in the prior-year quarter. The figure was above our estimate of $362 per ton.

Financials

Cash and cash equivalents were $485 million at the end of the quarter. Cash flow from operating activities was $277 million in the quarter. The company returned $12.5 million to shareholders through dividends in the reported quarter.

Outlook

The company expects its 2025 production to be approximately 8 million tons, subject to fluctuation due to gas availability, scheduled maintenance, unexpected outages, or other unforeseen events.

The company expects higher adjusted EBITDA in the third quarter of 2025 than in the second quarter, owing to higher sales volume of produced methanol, offset by a lower average realized price. Based on the prices stated in July and August, the company expects the average realized price to be between $335 and $345 per ton for these two months.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

It turns out, estimates revision have trended downward during the past month.

VGM Scores

At this time, Methanex has a great Growth Score of A, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with a C. However, the stock was allocated a score of A on the value side, putting it in the top quintile for value investors.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of this revision looks promising. Notably, Methanex has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.

Performance of an Industry Player

Methanex is part of the Zacks Chemical - Diversified industry. Over the past month, Olin (OLN), a stock from the same industry, has gained 20.7%. The company reported its results for the quarter ended June 2025 more than a month ago.

Olin reported revenues of $1.76 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +7%. EPS of $0.05 for the same period compares with $0.62 a year ago.

Olin is expected to post earnings of $0.15 per share for the current quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +171.4%. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed -15.1%.

The overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions translate into a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for Olin. Also, the stock has a VGM Score of C.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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