Annaly Jumps 20.6% in a Year: How to Approach the Stock Now?

Over the past year, Annaly Capital Management NLY shares have gained 20.6%, outperforming the industry’s 7.1% rise. It has also outperformed its peers, AGNC Investment AGNC and Arbor Realty Trust ABR, over the same time frame. AGNC Investment has grown 11.1%, while Arbor Realty has fallen 1.3%.

Price Performance

Does the NLY stock have more upside left despite showing recent strength in share price? Let us find out.

What’s Aiding NLY’s Performance?

Strategic Positioning:  Annaly’s strength stems from its disciplined diversification across the mortgage finance landscape. With a $89.5-billion investment portfolio as of June 30, 2025, anchored by $79.5 billion in highly liquid Agency MBS, the company balances scale with flexibility. Beyond its Agency holdings, Annaly has expanded into residential credit and mortgage servicing rights (MSRs), creating a complementary mix of assets designed to dampen volatility and enhance risk-adjusted returns.

This structure allows Annaly to adapt to changing market conditions. MSRs, for example, gain value when interest rates rise, helping offset declines in agency MBS valuations while also improving yield and providing a natural hedge against prepayment and basis risk. By sourcing newly originated MSRs through its partner network, Annaly is steadily building a competitive advantage in this segment, reinforcing portfolio resilience.

The company’s diversified platform positions it to capture opportunities across housing finance while mitigating concentration risks. This balanced approach underpins Annaly’s ability to generate durable returns and maintain stability through shifting economic and rate environments.

Relatively Lower Mortgage Rates to Benefit NII: Mortgage rates have been declining lately. Housing affordability challenges are decreasing with relatively lower mortgage rates. With rates trending lower and a balanced supply/affordability playing out in the mortgage market, loan demand is increasing. This will aid NLY’s net interest income (NII) in the first half of 2025. NII increased to $493.2 million in the first six months of 2205 from $47.1 million in the same period a year ago.

With improving purchase originations and refinancing activities, NLY will likely witness book value improvement in the coming period as spreads in the Agency market tighten, driving asset prices. This should also enhance net interest spread, improving the portfolio's overall yield. This is expected to support Annaly’s financials in the upcoming period.

Strong Liquidity Position: Annaly is focusing on improving its liquidity and reducing leverage. As of the end of June 30, 2025, the company had $7.4 billion in total assets available for financing, including $4.7 billion in cash and unencumbered Agency MBS, which can readily provide liquidity in times of adverse market conditions.

The company has created a record of paying out monthly dividends, currently yielding a staggering 13.2%. It currently sits at a payout ratio of 99%.

Annaly Capital Management Inc Dividend Yield (TTM)

Annaly Capital Management Inc dividend-yield-ttm | Annaly Capital Management Inc Quote

The company also follows a share repurchase plan. Under the program, it may repurchase up to $1.5 billion of its outstanding shares of common stock, which will expire on Dec. 31, 2029. Although the company has not repurchased shares under this plan since its announcement, its solid liquidity position will support its capital distribution in the future.

How to Play NLY Stock Now?

Annaly presents a compelling opportunity for income-focused investors seeking a high dividend yield. With a diversified portfolio that lessens interest rate volatility and a solid liquidity profile, NLY is well-positioned to deliver stable returns, even in a mixed economic environment.

However, risks remain, including interest rate fluctuations and sensitivity to book value. Also, from a valuation standpoint, NLY appears expensive relative to the industry. The company is currently trading at a premium with a forward 12-month price-to-tangible (P/TB) TTM multiple of 1.1X, higher than the industry average of 1.07X.

Price-to-Tangible Book TTM

As such, prospective investors may consider waiting for a more attractive entry point, given the stock’s current premium valuation. However, existing shareholders may consider holding NLY for its income-generating potential and long-term stability.

NLY currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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