Why SAIC (SAIC) Shares Are Falling Today

What Happened?

Shares of government IT services provider Science Applications International Corporation (NASDAQ:SAIC) fell 5.2% in the morning session after the company reported mixed second-quarter results and lowered its full-year revenue forecast. 

The government technology services provider announced second-quarter revenue of $1.77 billion, a 2.7% decrease from the prior year, falling short of analyst expectations. While its adjusted earnings per share of $3.63 significantly surpassed Wall Street estimates, investors focused on the weaker outlook. SAIC lowered its full-year revenue guidance to a midpoint of $7.29 billion, down 5% from its previous forecast of $7.68 billion. The updated guidance for the full year came in 4.7% below analysts' estimates. Despite the revenue challenges, the company did raise its guidance for full-year adjusted earnings per share.

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What Is The Market Telling Us

SAIC’s shares are not very volatile and have only had 7 moves greater than 5% over the last year. In that context, today’s move indicates the market considers this news meaningful, although it might not be something that would fundamentally change its perception of the business.

The biggest move we wrote about over the last year was 3 months ago when the stock dropped 13% on the news that the company announced weak first quarter 2025 (fiscal 2026) results which missed analysts' EPS estimates. The underwhelming result was due to sluggish revenue growth, which rose just 2% year on year, driven largely by volume increases in existing and new contracts, but weighed down by the completion of older contracts. Looking ahead, the company reaffirmed its full-year guidance for adjusted EPS and EBITDA, but both fell short of Wall Street estimates. Management pointed to strong bookings with a 1.3 book-to-bill ratio and high-profile wins like the U.S. Army contract, but those longer-term prospects likely didn't sway investors focused on profitability. Overall, it was a weak quarter.

SAIC is down 4.6% since the beginning of the year, and at $107.03 per share, it is trading 30.5% below its 52-week high of $154.10 from November 2024. Investors who bought $1,000 worth of SAIC’s shares 5 years ago would now be looking at an investment worth $1,303.

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