Bear of the Day: Winnebago Industries, Inc. (WGO)

Winnebago Industries, Inc. WGO stock fell over 40% in the past year while the S&P 500 climbed 20%. The recreational vehicle maker’s earnings outlook has tanked over the last few years, with WGO’s recent downward revisions earning it a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell).

Winnebago faces a tough-to-compete-against period of growth, as well as macroeconomic headwinds of inflation, higher interest rates, and weakening consumer sentiment.

Why Investors Might Want to Stay Away from WGO Stock

Winnebago is an iconic American company and a leading outdoor lifestyle manufacturer. WGO builds motorhomes, travel trailers, fifth wheel products, and boats under multiple brands, including its namesake, Chris-Craft, Grand Design, Newmar, and Barletta.

Winnebago’s business is cyclical, given the nature of its high price points, as big-ticket items go out of style quickly in times of economic distress and uncertainty. Conversely, WGO’s sales often boom during economic upswings.

WGO went on a huge run between 2020 and 2022, more than doubling its revenue from $1.98 billion in 2019 to $4.96 billion in FY22. Its sales then tanked 30% in FY23 and 15% in FY24, amid a quickly changing economic environment, marked by higher interest rates and soaring inflation.

On top of that, the Covid boom created a big pull forward, meaning people who were going to buy a boat or an RV over a longer period of time all did so very quickly. Winnebago’s revenue is projected to slip another 8% this year to $2.75 billion.

The firm said that its Q3 FY25 results (which is reported in late June) “reflect both the diverse dynamics of our business segments and the challenges posed by an uncertain economic environment,” with retail demand remaining “soft” across the outdoor recreation sector.

Meanwhile, its adjusted earnings per share are projected to tank 57% YoY in FY25 (the 12 months ending in August 2025). This rough outlook comes after its adjusted EPS fell 50% in FY24.

Winnebago’s downward earnings revisions earn it a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell). It might be best for investors to stay away from WGO until it shows signs of a turnaround. 

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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