TransMedics Group, Inc. (TMDX): A Bull Case Theory

 We came across a bullish thesis on TransMedics Group, Inc. on Natan’s Substack. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on TMDX. TransMedics Group, Inc.'s share was trading at $114.29 as of September 15th. TMDX’s trailing and forward P/E were 57.57 and 51.55 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.

TransMedics (TMDX) has experienced significant share volatility in recent months, with the stock recently falling from $140 to $105 due to typical Q3 seasonal softness and competitor-related headlines that do not materially affect its operations. A notable development in the sector was Terumo’s $1.5 billion acquisition of OrganOx, reflecting a valuation of over 20x sales, highlighting the premium placed on high-growth medical device companies. TransMedics’ CEO has been vocal in reiterating a highly positive outlook, emphasizing that the company remains significantly undervalued relative to its growth potential, even personally investing in the stock as a demonstration of confidence.

He encouraged shareholders to focus on the long-term trajectory, projecting substantial expansion in organ transplant coverage in the U.S. and globally, rather than reacting to short-term quarterly swings or daily volatility. TransMedics currently trades at price-to-sales multiples similar to large MedTech peers, yet it is expected to grow revenues at over 30%, significantly faster than the typical 10–15% of its established competitors. The company has already shown strong profitability, posting a 20% net margin in its most recent quarter, indicating room for further margin expansion and potential to exceed its 30% long-term operating margin guidance.

With these fundamentals, TMDX presents a compelling risk/reward profile, with projections suggesting the stock could surpass $200 by 2026 from current levels near $115–$120. Given the combination of robust growth, improving profitability, and market undervaluation, TransMedics represents a highly attractive long-term investment, offering both upside potential and conviction-backed management alignment.

Previously we covered a bullish thesis on TransMedics Group, Inc. (TMDX) by Oliver | MMMT Wealth in May 2025, which highlighted the company’s warm perfusion technology, strong competitive moat, rapid revenue growth, and expanding organ transplant coverage. The company's stock price has appreciated approximately by 19.28% since our coverage. The thesis still stands as TMDX scales its OCS program globally. Natan shares a similar perspective but emphasizes recent volatility, competitor acquisitions, and the CEO’s long-term confidence, reinforcing TMDX’s attractive upside toward $200 by 2026.

TransMedics Group, Inc. is not on our list of the 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 35 hedge fund portfolios held TMDX at the end of the second quarter which was 23 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the potential of TMDX as an investment, we believe certain AI stocks offer greater upside potential and carry less downside risk. If you're looking for an extremely undervalued AI stock that also stands to benefit significantly from Trump-era tariffs and the onshoring trend, see our free report on the best short-term AI stock.

READ NEXT: 30 Stocks That Should Double in 3 Years and 11 Hidden AI Stocks to Buy NOW

Disclosure: None.