Can PayPal's 5% Cash Back on BNPL Fuel Its Growth This Holiday Season?

PayPal Holdings PYPL recently announced that U.S. customers will earn 5% cash back on PayPal BNPL online purchases, starting from Oct. 6, 2025, through the end of the year. With this move, the company aims to capitalize on holiday-season spending and support merchant growth.

PayPal is also introducing “Pay Monthly” for in-store use in the United States, providing shoppers with more flexibility to pay over time at their preferred stores. This option will offer the same 5% cash back and choice at checkout in-store. The rollout will happen over the coming weeks.

More than 80% of consumers who have used or considered BNPL are open to using it for holiday shopping this year. PayPal’s BNPL is a great opportunity for merchants to boost sales and improve customer loyalty by offering flexible payment options and cash back rewards.

PayPal is one of the leading providers of BNPL services worldwide. PYPL’s BNPL is a widely available solution, as it’s offered almost everywhere PayPal is used in its largest markets. The company’s BNPL offering lets shoppers split their purchases into convenient payments and earn cash back.

When consumers choose BNPL, their average order value is well ahead of a standard branded checkout transaction. In the second quarter of 2025, BNPL volume grew more than 20% year over year, while monthly active accounts expanded 18%.

How Are Block and Affirm Doing in the BNPL Space?

Block’s XYZ BNPL Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) grew 17% year over year to $9.11 billion in the second quarter of 2025, while Cash App’s gross profit per active user rose 15%. Re-payment schedule is strong, with 96% of installments paid timely and 98% avoiding late fees. Moreover, more than 95% of Afterpay GMV came from returning customers.

Affirm Holdings, Inc. (AFRM) reported a 45.6% year-over-year rise in total transactions to 31.3 million in the third quarter of fiscal 2025, fueled by a 94% repeat transaction rate. AFRM recently partnered with Ace Hardware, enabling the latter’s customers to select Affirm at checkout by scanning a QR code in participating stores.

PYPL’s Price Performance, Valuation & Estimates

Shares of PayPal have declined 16.4% year to date, underperforming both the broader industry and the S&P 500 Index.

From a valuation standpoint, PayPal shares are trading at a discount, as suggested by the Value Score of A. In terms of forward 12-month P/E, PYPL stock is trading at 12.59X, which is at a significant discount to the Zacks Financial Transaction Services industry’s 20.21X.

PayPal’s estimate revisions reflect a positive trend. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for full-year 2025 EPS has been revised upward over the past month. This consensus mark suggests 12.5% growth year over year.

PayPal currently carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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