Quarterly financial reports play a vital role on Wall Street, as they help investors see how a company has performed and what might be coming down the road in the near-term. And out of all of the metrics and results to consider, earnings is one of the most important.
We know earnings results are vital, but how a company performs compared to bottom line expectations can be even more important when it comes to stock prices, especially in the near-term. This means that investors might want to take advantage of these earnings surprises.
The ability to identify stocks that are likely to top quarterly earnings expectations can be profitable, but it's no simple task. Here at Zacks, our Earnings ESP filter helps make things easier.
The Zacks Earnings ESP, Explained
The Zacks Expected Surprise Prediction, or ESP, works by locking in on the most up-to-date analyst earnings revisions because they can be more accurate than estimates from weeks or even months before the actual release date. The thinking is pretty straightforward: analysts who provide earnings estimates closer to the report are likely to have more information.
The core of the ESP model is comparing the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, where the resulting percentage difference between the two equals the Expected Surprise Prediction. The Zacks Rank is also factored into the ESP metric to better help find companies that appear poised to top their next bottom-line consensus estimate, which will hopefully help lift the stock price.
In fact, when we combined a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better and a positive Earnings ESP, stocks produced a positive surprise 70% of the time. Perhaps most importantly, using these parameters has helped produce 28.3% annual returns on average, according to our 10 year backtest.
Most stocks, about 60%, fall into the #3 (Hold) category, and they are expected to perform in-line with the broader market. Stocks with a #2 (Buy) and #1 (Strong Buy) rating, or the top 15% and top 5% of stocks, respectively, should outperform the market, with Strong Buy stocks outperforming more than any other rank.
Should You Consider Fortinet?
The final step today is to look at a stock that meets our ESP qualifications. Fortinet (FTNT) earns a #3 (Hold) 27 days from its next quarterly earnings release on November 5, 2025, and its Most Accurate Estimate comes in at $0.66 a share.
Fortinet's Earnings ESP sits at +4.43%, which, as explained above, is calculated by taking the percentage difference between the $0.66 Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.63. FTNT is also part of a large group of stocks that boast a positive ESP. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.
FTNT is part of a big group of Computer and Technology stocks that boast a positive ESP, and investors may want to take a look at Meta Platforms (META) as well.
Meta Platforms is a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) stock, and is getting ready to report earnings on October 29, 2025. META's Most Accurate Estimate sits at $7.56 a share 20 days from its next earnings release.
For Meta Platforms, the percentage difference between its Most Accurate Estimate and its Zacks Consensus Estimate of $6.74 is +12.24%.
FTNT and META's positive ESP figures tell us that both stocks have a good chance at beating analyst expectations in their next earnings report.
Find Stocks to Buy or Sell Before They're Reported
Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>
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Fortinet, Inc. (FTNT): Free Stock Analysis Report Meta Platforms, Inc. (META): Free Stock Analysis ReportThis article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
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